7.2 Billion Euros of Strikes, All Above the Market. Yesterday's Expiry Finding Was Arithmetic.
Today's New York cut carries 7.2 billion euros of optionality across four strikes and every one is above the market — the board has more than doubled overnight, from 3.35 billion, while spot has fallen further underneath it, and the largest single strike on the whole board, 2.5 billion at 1.1215, sits about ninety-five pips up. Second consecutive day the euro board has been out of reach, which is the opposite of what a rule reading "large expiries today, expect a pin" assumes. The yen board shrank 42 per cent to 4.074 billion and straddles the market, with 1.1 billion at 158.00. Two corrections of our own. We called yesterday's nearest euro strike "three and a quarter billion the market has walked away from" when the session had already traded two pips through it four hours earlier, on a range sitting in our own notes — above spot is an instant, walked away from is a session. And the structural finding we published yesterday, that no board expires after the event in its own currency, is for three of the four currencies a convention restated: the 10am New York cut is 14:00 UTC every day and the Fed announces at 18:00 every time. What survived was the Australian board, which crossed sessions. Pricing: the hold is now multi-sourced at 92.8, above 90 and about 91 per cent, closing a six-run single-sourced item. December does not agree — 84.4 against 82.5 from two readings of the same tool, where the second should be the larger, and just under 90 from a Tokyo note. Durable goods printed 1.8 against consensus figures of 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and our own carried 1.8.