FX ニュース
相場を動かすイベント、時間帯ごとの地合い、マクロの流れ。相場を当てにいくのではなく、システムで回す人に向けて書いています。
We Said London Would Open on Friday's Expiry Map. The Monday Ladder Landed Two Minutes Before the Bell.
Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map. InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.
USD/JPY Printed 155.00 and Gave Back 101 Pips Before Tokyo Opened — On Oil, Not on Japan
USD/JPY touched 155.00 overnight for the first time since 7 September and was back at 153.99 before the Tokyo open. The chain that did it: a ship struck in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia shutting its 7-million-barrel East-West pipeline, the US 10-year through 5% for the first time since 2023 — then four presidential posts that unwound the lot. Three publishers give three different highs for the same barrel, four dollars apart, and three feeds give the Fed hike at 85%, 90% and 93%. Tokyo opens at 154.36 with the spec book flat.
We Published $2.86 Billion at 154.00. The Same Publisher Said $3.06 Billion Seven Hours Later.
On Friday this desk published the 10:00 New York cut ladder — $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00, $2.74bn at 153.00, $1.66bn at 152.00. The same publisher's second 11 September ladder, posted seven hours later under a different byline, says $3.06bn, $2.88bn, and carries no 152.00 line at all. Neither page is wrong, which is the problem. No ladder for today existed at 06:20 UTC, so London opens on Friday's map — and Tokyo has already run 153.37 to 154.14.
Three Events Land in the Same Minute at 14:00 UTC. Your Filter Sees One of Them.
At 14:00 UTC the New York option cut rolls off $7.26bn of USD/JPY notional, the University of Michigan publishes September sentiment against a 51.0 consensus, and Lagarde takes a stage in Paris. CPI lands 90 minutes earlier. Two of the four are invisible to a calendar-fed news filter — and the core m/m consensus dispute we carried for two runs closes at +0.2%.
$2.86 Billion Expires at USD/JPY 154.00 and Spot Is at 154.08 — with CPI Ninety Minutes Before the Cut
The full 10:00 New York cut expiry ladder, with spot against it: $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00 with the pair trading 154.08, and EUR1.44bn at EUR/USD 1.1575 thirty pips below spot. Tokyo traded 53 pips and 12 pips; Britain doubled its GDP consensus for about four. Plus the oil audit we owed you — our own four published Brent prices in 72 hours, and two vendors $3 apart this morning.
Treasury Sells 10-Year Paper at 17:00 UTC and Starts Buying the Long End Back the Same Day
London took the dollar index below 98.70 this morning and handed it all back by 10:49 UTC. There is no 12:30 UTC release today. The dated event is the 10-year reopening at 17:00 UTC, against a 12 August stop of 4.683% and a cash 10-year at 4.81% — the eighth consecutive auction to clear higher, if it does. And Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks start the same day.