Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
Six hours ago this desk published that the September selloff is a belly story — 51 basis points at the three-year against 13 at the thirty-year.
The thirty-year is now 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Both facts are true, and the inference we drew from the first one is the part that needs marking.
The Treasury's own par curve has the 20-year above the 30-year on all three business days since the BOJ moved — 5.33 against 5.29, while twos-tens sits at +25bp.
At 09:30 UTC Germany reopens a 2047 and a 2056 for one billion euros each, the exact pair the US curve has inverted, and your calendar shows one of them. Last week's 2056 was offered 1,500 million and allotted 1,257.41 million.
The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4.00% and sixteen of eighteen officials put another hike on the dot plot.
Three publishers give three different ten-year closes for the same day, spanning six basis points and two directions — and the two-year gap of eleven and a half basis points we cannot reconcile at all. Plus: retail sales printed +1.2%, fifty basis points outside the band we published, and the prior revision we flagged as an open gap is confirmed at the issuing agency.
The 15 September twenty-year bond auction cleared at 5.420% with a two-basis-point tail, a 2.57 bid-to-cover and the lowest indirect share in the auction's six-year life — and eighteen hours on, the calendar feed still shows an empty actual field.
On Friday this desk declared a consensus dispute closed at +0.2% core month on month.
The BLS published +0.3%. The outlier we rejected said +0.4%, so the print landed exactly between the two — and the house forecast we quoted at +0.19% was eleven basis points low. Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan printed 47.8 against a 51.0 consensus with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. What a desk owes you after a call like that.
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night.
Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.
London took the dollar index below 98.70 this morning and handed it all back by 10:49 UTC.
There is no 12:30 UTC release today. The dated event is the 10-year reopening at 17:00 UTC, against a 12 August stop of 4.683% and a cash 10-year at 4.81% — the eighth consecutive auction to clear higher, if it does. And Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks start the same day.