Berita FX
Peristiwa yang menggerakkan pasar, kondisi tiap sesi, dan latar makro. Ditulis untuk trader yang menjalankan sistem, bukan menebak arah.
We Said London Would Open on Friday's Expiry Map. The Monday Ladder Landed Two Minutes Before the Bell.
Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map. InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.
USD/JPY Printed 155.00 and Gave Back 101 Pips Before Tokyo Opened — On Oil, Not on Japan
USD/JPY touched 155.00 overnight for the first time since 7 September and was back at 153.99 before the Tokyo open. The chain that did it: a ship struck in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia shutting its 7-million-barrel East-West pipeline, the US 10-year through 5% for the first time since 2023 — then four presidential posts that unwound the lot. Three publishers give three different highs for the same barrel, four dollars apart, and three feeds give the Fed hike at 85%, 90% and 93%. Tokyo opens at 154.36 with the spec book flat.
We Published $2.86 Billion at 154.00. The Same Publisher Said $3.06 Billion Seven Hours Later.
On Friday this desk published the 10:00 New York cut ladder — $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00, $2.74bn at 153.00, $1.66bn at 152.00. The same publisher's second 11 September ladder, posted seven hours later under a different byline, says $3.06bn, $2.88bn, and carries no 152.00 line at all. Neither page is wrong, which is the problem. No ladder for today existed at 06:20 UTC, so London opens on Friday's map — and Tokyo has already run 153.37 to 154.14.
Three Events Land in the Same Minute at 14:00 UTC. Your Filter Sees One of Them.
At 14:00 UTC the New York option cut rolls off $7.26bn of USD/JPY notional, the University of Michigan publishes September sentiment against a 51.0 consensus, and Lagarde takes a stage in Paris. CPI lands 90 minutes earlier. Two of the four are invisible to a calendar-fed news filter — and the core m/m consensus dispute we carried for two runs closes at +0.2%.
$2.86 Billion Expires at USD/JPY 154.00 and Spot Is at 154.08 — with CPI Ninety Minutes Before the Cut
The full 10:00 New York cut expiry ladder, with spot against it: $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00 with the pair trading 154.08, and EUR1.44bn at EUR/USD 1.1575 thirty pips below spot. Tokyo traded 53 pips and 12 pips; Britain doubled its GDP consensus for about four. Plus the oil audit we owed you — our own four published Brent prices in 72 hours, and two vendors $3 apart this morning.
Treasury Sells 10-Year Paper at 17:00 UTC and Starts Buying the Long End Back the Same Day
London took the dollar index below 98.70 this morning and handed it all back by 10:49 UTC. There is no 12:30 UTC release today. The dated event is the 10-year reopening at 17:00 UTC, against a 12 August stop of 4.683% and a cash 10-year at 4.81% — the eighth consecutive auction to clear higher, if it does. And Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks start the same day.