Six Officials in Seven Days, One Number Between Them, and It Was Six Days Old
Six Federal Reserve and European officials have spoken about the rate path in seven days and not one has named a probability.
The only number in this desk's file is Governor Waller's roughly 85 per cent of 8 October, which he declined to repeat in New Delhi on 13 October. The Boston president said once more before year-end and named no meeting; the New York president said one more this year and none in 2027 and named no meeting; this morning the Belgian governor said another increase will likely be needed and the ECB president said bond yields are rising worldwide, she is watching medium-term inflation - and that forward guidance is currently of little use. That last line explains the pattern rather than decorating it. Meanwhile the feeds carry October at 16, 19, 19.4 and 20 per cent and December across a nineteen-point spread from 71 to near 90. Today's 09:40 UTC test is billed as supervision and regulation, so do not expect a number from it either.