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Tag: Treasuries Hapus filter

Kamis, 15 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

06.17 UTC Treasuries data quality

We Said the Issuer Was Silent. It Had Published Three Hours Earlier.

Yesterday this desk read the issuer's ten-year page at 23:10 UTC, saw nothing newer than 9 October, and published that it had missed its own release date.

It had not: the page now carries an update stamp of 14 October 3:16 p.m. CDT, which is 20:16 UTC - 174 minutes before we looked. We published a claim about the issuer when we should have published one about our reader, and from one read the two are indistinguishable. Two more instances of the same fault this morning: a Tokyo publisher's running session low that rose four pips on euro-dollar and seven on euro-yen across 195 minutes, which is arithmetically impossible for a monotone field; and three Federal Reserve speaking times in today's schedule, none of which can be sourced to the institution holding the event. Chicago publishes no upcoming calendar at all. Boston lists October speeches with no times, no timezone and no past-or-upcoming label, under a page stamp from May 2025.

Selasa, 13 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

11.54 UTC Treasuries yields

Four Decimal Places on a Yield Nobody Has Measured Since Thursday

One vendor put the US ten-year at 5.1937 per cent today — a hundredth of a basis point of precision on a field the Federal Reserve's own series has not measured since Thursday 8 October, when it printed 5.22.

There is no observation for Friday, Monday or today. Three vendors give today's level as 5.20, 5.1937 and about 5.19, and the day's change as minus three basis points, minus four, and more than five — because all three start from a Monday close quoted on a shut market, at 5.23 or 5.24, two basis points above the last real measurement. Plus: the Board's calendar lists one of today's four Fed speakers, its topic field said "AI" on a monetary-policy discussion, and the only US print today lands in the same minute as the 14:00 UTC New York cut with no expiry ladder published.

Senin, 05 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

06.32 UTC USD/JPY Treasuries

The Two-Year Closed Higher on a 61,000-Job Miss. Our Three-Feed Probability Spread Was One Feed on a Clock.

Friday’s 29,000 payrolls print missed the 27-analyst median by 61,000 and the two-year Treasury closed 3.3 basis points higher at 4.825 per cent, the ten-year 3.0 higher at 5.271 after a low of 5.1528.

We also retract Saturday’s claim that three feeds disagreed about the October Fed probability: all of them are CME FedWatch, and with timestamps attached the series reads 28, 12.9, 17, 21.59 and the low twenties — one feed on a clock, whose intraday round trip of 8.69 points was 1.36 times the net repricing. Dollar-yen made a new Tokyo high at 158.17 on a French bond story, and three coupons settle the day after CPI.

Kamis, 24 September 2026 · 1 catatan

11.47 UTC USD

The Thirty-Year Moved 13 Basis Points This Month. It Is Also at a 22-Year High.

Six hours ago this desk published that the September selloff is a belly story — 51 basis points at the three-year against 13 at the thirty-year.

The thirty-year is now 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Both facts are true, and the inference we drew from the first one is the part that needs marking.

Rabu, 23 September 2026 · 1 catatan

06.14 UTC USD

The 20-Year Yields More Than the 30-Year. Germany Sells Both Today.

The Treasury's own par curve has the 20-year above the 30-year on all three business days since the BOJ moved — 5.33 against 5.29, while twos-tens sits at +25bp.

At 09:30 UTC Germany reopens a 2047 and a 2056 for one billion euros each, the exact pair the US curve has inverted, and your calendar shows one of them. Last week's 2056 was offered 1,500 million and allotted 1,257.41 million.

Kamis, 10 September 2026 · 1 catatan

11.58 UTC USD

Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC

Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night.

Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.

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