Notícias FX
Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
We Closed the Core CPI Dispute at +0.2%. It Printed +0.3%. Neither Vendor Had the Number.
On Friday this desk declared a consensus dispute closed at +0.2% core month on month. The BLS published +0.3%. The outlier we rejected said +0.4%, so the print landed exactly between the two — and the house forecast we quoted at +0.19% was eleven basis points low. Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan printed 47.8 against a 51.0 consensus with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. What a desk owes you after a call like that.
Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night. Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.
The ECB's 25 Basis Points Is Priced — So Today's Real Release Is the Staff Projections at 12:45 UTC
A 25bp hike to 2.50% at 12:15 UTC is near-unanimous, so the decision is not the release. What is undecided is what the new staff projections say about inflation the ECB's own economists attribute to supply — and which of two numbers, both called core and 20bp apart, the Governing Council leans on. EUR/USD did eleven pips in Tokyo waiting.