Notícias FX
Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
Three Readers Want Empire State Between 14.0 and 15.0. The New York Fed Will Not Tell You Which Minute It Prints.
Empire State prints at 12:30 UTC and three readers give three consensus figures — 14.75, 15.0 and 14.0 — against an August prior of 20.6 that the New York Fed itself calls its highest reading in more than four years. We publish the band and settle the prior at the issuing institution. And the New York Fed does not promise a release minute: its own note says "at or shortly after 8:30 a.m.", so a symmetric news window is the wrong shape. Plus yesterday's UK cut closed: total pay printed +3.9%, exactly on consensus.
The ECB's 25 Basis Points Is Priced — So Today's Real Release Is the Staff Projections at 12:45 UTC
A 25bp hike to 2.50% at 12:15 UTC is near-unanimous, so the decision is not the release. What is undecided is what the new staff projections say about inflation the ECB's own economists attribute to supply — and which of two numbers, both called core and 20bp apart, the Governing Council leans on. EUR/USD did eleven pips in Tokyo waiting.
EUR/USD Did Thirteen Pips in Tokyo and Is Sitting on Two Expiries — London Is Where That Breaks
EUR/USD traded a thirteen-pip range in Tokyo — 1.1619 to 1.1632 — directly above New York cut expiries at 1.1615 and 1.1600, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1611–1.1620. There is no European data today at all and the ECB is thirty hours away. Why four levels inside twenty-three pips is one level, and what a range system does wrong here.
Nothing New Can Be Said About the ECB Until Thursday 12:15 UTC — Which Is Why EUR/USD Is Stuck
EUR/USD is pinned around 1.1625 between option expiries and two-sided stops while the ECB sits in its seven-day quiet period. The decision lands Thursday 12:15 UTC, Lagarde at 12:45, US CPI Friday 12:30. Why today's London open is a liquidity event, not an information one.
A Record Far-Right Result in Germany Moved the Euro by Almost Nothing — That Is the Information
The AfD took a record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday and the euro barely moved. For a system trader the non-reaction is the useful data point — and it says something specific about what a volatility filter should have done.