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标签： inflation 清除筛选

2026年10月26日星期一 · 1 篇

Ifo Germany

We Published 09:00 for the Ifo. The Issuer Says 10:30 Local, and Will Not Say Which Zone.

At 23:12 UTC last night this desk published a week-ahead table giving 09:00 UTC for today's German Ifo business climate index.

The hour is wrong. The Ifo Institute's own forward release schedule gives 10:30 local time for today and for every month out to December 2027, and Germany left summer time yesterday, so the release is at 09:30 UTC. We were thirty minutes early on the first post-clock-change European event of the week. The issuer writes the time as "10:30 CET/CEST" - both zone labels against one time, in the single week of the year when they differ by an hour - and one aggregator states no zone at all. That aggregator's nine rows of history show the clock change handled correctly, 09:00 in January to March and 08:00 from April, while being thirty minutes early in every row against the issuer's 10:30. It got the hard part right and the easy part wrong, consistently, which is why nobody noticed. Today's consensus is 89.9 on one reader, explicitly unchanged from September, and 90.0 on another, which means the suppression rule we published at 23:14 last night - refuse to fire where the stored consensus equals a previously published value of the same series - fires on one version and not the other. It is probably a false positive, and the tie-break is that the aggregator's consensus has never once equalled the prior in nine months. The deflation: six beats, one in line, two misses, mean absolute surprise 0.67 points, against a 0.1 vendor disagreement. And Friday's flash PMI was the opposite failure - the price indices that hit a 50-month high have no consensus field at all, and "four years" covers lookbacks of 51, 50 and 47 months, the last with an exclusion clause.

2026年10月19日星期一 · 1 篇

USDCAD

Canada's Prior Is Minus 0.1 and Plus 0.2. The Consensus Only Fits One of Them.

Statistics Canada publishes September CPI at 12:30 UTC and the prior you are trading against exists in two versions.

The agency's own August release says the CPI fell 0.1 per cent month over month and, seasonally adjusted, rose 0.2 per cent - both sentences in the same document. Every preview in this morning's sweep prints minus 0.1 as the prior and plus 0.2 as the consensus, which reads as a 30 basis point acceleration. If the forecasters mean the adjusted series, plus 0.2 against plus 0.2 is no acceleration at all, and nobody publishing the consensus says which series it is for. Headline consensus is 3.2 per cent year on year against 3.0. Four numbers are called core for August and they span 70 basis points - CPI-common 2.6, CPI-trim 1.9, CPI-median 2.0, ex food and energy 2.4 - and the only one with a September consensus is the one the Bank of Canada does not target, while the three it watches have no number to beat before the October 28 decision. Also: the two figures this desk fought over five weeks ago, 3.0 and minus 0.1, are now the uncontested prior at four houses, which is how a vendor dispute actually ends. And one publisher priced the Bank of Canada's year end twice in three hours, at nearly 23 basis points and at 34, eleven basis points apart.

2026年10月14日星期三 · 1 篇

US CPI inflation

Eight Readers Agreed on One Field. It Is the One They All Got Wrong.

US September CPI printed at 12:30 UTC: headline 0.6 per cent on the month and 3.7 on the year, core 0.3 and 2.6.

We spent five slots assembling eight readers across four fields. The one field they all agreed on - core monthly at 0.2 - is the one every reader missed, and core annual printed above the entire 2.39 to 2.5 range. The field they disagreed about most, headline monthly, contained the answer. And the dispute itself was malformed: the 0.53 and the 2.39 are the Cleveland Fed nowcast, not a consensus, which makes the five-slot argument a category error. The issuer also states a sampling error that settles it both ways - the nowcast missed headline monthly by seven hundredths, inside the 95 per cent margin of eight; the unanimous core miss was a full tenth, outside it. Unanimity is not precision. Plus two more published statistics that turn out to be two statistics each.

2026年9月18日星期五 · 1 篇

2026年9月13日星期日 · 1 篇

USD

We Closed the Core CPI Dispute at +0.2%. It Printed +0.3%. Neither Vendor Had the Number.

On Friday this desk declared a consensus dispute closed at +0.2% core month on month.

The BLS published +0.3%. The outlier we rejected said +0.4%, so the print landed exactly between the two — and the house forecast we quoted at +0.19% was eleven basis points low. Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan printed 47.8 against a 51.0 consensus with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. What a desk owes you after a call like that.

2026年9月10日星期四 · 2 篇

USD

Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC

Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night.

Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.

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