Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
Speculators Flipped 103,023 Contracts and the Yen Is Net Long Going Into BOJ Week
For four sessions this desk tracked a yen short of 92,227 contracts and asked what would happen when it was squeezed. Friday's COT answered: a 103,023-contract swing to a net long of 10,796. Tokyo opens the biggest policy week of the month at 153.74 with the crowded side of the trade gone — the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC and a fully priced Bank of Japan hike on Friday. Why a flat book changes what a priced hike can do to you.
A 98%-Priced BOJ Hike Cannot Explain a 4% Yen Rally — What Tokyo Is Handing London
USD/JPY traded to 153.53 in Asia, the yen's strongest since February and about 4% in six sessions — while a BOJ hike on 18 September is priced at 97–98%. A fully priced event cannot explain the move. Here is what is actually driving it, and what it means for size into the London open.
USD/JPY Breaks 154 Before the BOJ Even Meets — What a Pre-Priced Hike Does to Your System
USD/JPY traded below 154 in Tokyo hours, the yen's strongest level since late February, with a 25bp BOJ hike on 18 September already largely priced. Here is what that leaves to trade, and why a five-month trend filter is the wrong tool this week.