Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
155.00 Held on the Third Attempt. At 23:50 Tokyo Finally Gets a Japanese Number.
USD/JPY has taken 155.00 three times in thirty-six hours. The first two were handed straight back inside the session; the third stuck — New York closed 155.10, seventy-five sen up, on a 154.21–155.24 range, with the ten-year at a nineteen-year 5.0390% and the Dow down 399. Three sessions running, every link in the yen's chain has been American. At 23:50 UTC Japan finally supplies its own numbers — trade balance, exports, imports and core machinery orders in one minute — and on the evidence of the last three sessions Tokyo will not trade a single one of them. We are putting that in writing so it can be marked.
155.24, Then Straight Back. The Yen Is Trading the Ten-Year — and Treasury Sells 20-Year Paper Into It at 17:00.
London ran USD/JPY through 155.00 to 155.24 on a ten-year at 5.0390% and handed all of it back when the yield gave up three basis points — the second failure at that figure in fourteen hours, and no link in either chain was Japanese. The ten-year went from "highest since October 2023" to "highest since July 2007" across about three basis points. Treasury sells 20-year paper into it at 17:00 UTC, six securities settle today, and the 20-year settles Friday on Bank of Japan morning.
The Only 12:30 Print Today Is Canadian, and Two Vendors Are 40 Basis Points Apart on It
The pre-US window fires at 12:30 UTC today with no American number in it. One vendor has the Canadian consensus at +0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y; another at −0.1% and 2.0%. Statistics Canada's own July release says 3.0% — and 2.0% is the Bank of Canada median core, sitting in the wrong field. Second labelling failure from the same publisher in four sessions. Meanwhile London ran USD/JPY to 154.74 with nothing scheduled at all.
Tuesday's 20-Year Auction Settles on Bank of Japan Day. Last Month's Tailed Half a Basis Point.
Treasury's own tentative schedule confirms the 20-year bond auction for Tuesday 15 September, settling Friday 18 September — Bank of Japan day. Last month's $18bn went at 5.204% against a 5.199% when-issued, a half-basis-point tail with 62.93% indirects. Last week's 3-year, 10-year and 30-year all settle Tuesday, the day the FOMC convenes. None of it is on your FX calendar.
Speculators Flipped 103,023 Contracts and the Yen Is Net Long Going Into BOJ Week
For four sessions this desk tracked a yen short of 92,227 contracts and asked what would happen when it was squeezed. Friday's COT answered: a 103,023-contract swing to a net long of 10,796. Tokyo opens the biggest policy week of the month at 153.74 with the crowded side of the trade gone — the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC and a fully priced Bank of Japan hike on Friday. Why a flat book changes what a priced hike can do to you.
The Yen Rally Ended on Day Six — and Tokyo's Own Producer Prices Print at 23:50 UTC
Five sessions of yen buying into a wall of dollar-positive news, then a squeeze on the sixth: USD/JPY traded 153.85–154.67 and Gaitame's morning range is 153.600–155.300. Japan's own producer prices land at 23:50 UTC expected at 7.4% year on year — two full points hotter than the American PPI that moved the dollar. Why a five-day trend ending on day six is the exact shape that costs money.
The BOJ Board Member We Could Not Name Yesterday Is Masu — and He Argued for More Hikes
Yesterday we cut the name because three sources gave three identities. The Bank of Japan's own page settles it: board member Masu, in Fukui at 01:30 UTC, arguing that real rates are still negative and the policy rate should keep rising. USD/JPY answered with a 46-pip Tokyo range. The rate story that can actually move today is the 30-year reopening at 17:00 UTC.
The 3-Year Auction Went Fine. It Cleared 18 Basis Points Higher Than the Last One.
The US sold $58bn of 3-year notes at 4.474% with a 0.1bp stop-through, bid-to-cover 2.72 against a 2.62 average. Demand was normal — at 18bp more than the last auction, with the 10-year through 4.8%. Front-end yields rose and the dollar still could not reclaim 155 against the yen. What that says about any rate-differential signal, and the week's schedule in UTC.
Tokyo Printed the Yen's Best Level and New York Took It Back — Brent at $99 Is Why
USD/JPY printed 152.89 in Tokyo hours — the yen's strongest since February — then closed New York in the mid-153s after a 154.42 high. What reversed it was not Japanese: Brent hit $99 on strikes against Saudi energy facilities, and Japan sourced 95.9% of its crude from the Middle East in FY2024. A sizing problem for the Tokyo session.
A 98%-Priced BOJ Hike Cannot Explain a 4% Yen Rally — What Tokyo Is Handing London
USD/JPY traded to 153.53 in Asia, the yen's strongest since February and about 4% in six sessions — while a BOJ hike on 18 September is priced at 97–98%. A fully priced event cannot explain the move. Here is what is actually driving it, and what it means for size into the London open.
A 162K Payroll Print Put a Fed Hike Back on the Table — CPI Lands Friday at 12:30 UTC
August payrolls came in at 162K against a consensus near 56K, and September Fed hike odds went from roughly half to about two-thirds. August CPI is released Friday 11 September at 12:30 UTC. Here is how to size the window, and why the disagreement matters more than the direction.
USD/JPY Breaks 154 Before the BOJ Even Meets — What a Pre-Priced Hike Does to Your System
USD/JPY traded below 154 in Tokyo hours, the yen's strongest level since late February, with a 25bp BOJ hike on 18 September already largely priced. Here is what that leaves to trade, and why a five-month trend filter is the wrong tool this week.