Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
Speculators Flipped 103,023 Contracts and the Yen Is Net Long Going Into BOJ Week
For four sessions this desk tracked a yen short of 92,227 contracts and asked what would happen when it was squeezed. Friday's COT answered: a 103,023-contract swing to a net long of 10,796. Tokyo opens the biggest policy week of the month at 153.74 with the crowded side of the trade gone — the Fed on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC and a fully priced Bank of Japan hike on Friday. Why a flat book changes what a priced hike can do to you.
Japan Beat the 7.4% Consensus With a 7.6% That Was Also a Slowdown — and Copper, Not Oil, Did Most of It
The Bank of Japan's own release has August corporate goods prices at +7.6% year on year against a 7.4% consensus — but July was revised up from +7.2% to +7.7%, so the beat is also a deceleration, and the month itself printed −0.2%. The largest contributor was non-ferrous metals at +43.3%, not petroleum. Plus Britain doubling its GDP consensus at 06:00 UTC for four pips, and a US CPI consensus three vendors cannot agree on.
The BOJ Board Member We Could Not Name Yesterday Is Masu — and He Argued for More Hikes
Yesterday we cut the name because three sources gave three identities. The Bank of Japan's own page settles it: board member Masu, in Fukui at 01:30 UTC, arguing that real rates are still negative and the policy rate should keep rising. USD/JPY answered with a 46-pip Tokyo range. The rate story that can actually move today is the 30-year reopening at 17:00 UTC.
Tokyo Printed the Yen's Best Level and New York Took It Back — Brent at $99 Is Why
USD/JPY printed 152.89 in Tokyo hours — the yen's strongest since February — then closed New York in the mid-153s after a 154.42 high. What reversed it was not Japanese: Brent hit $99 on strikes against Saudi energy facilities, and Japan sourced 95.9% of its crude from the Middle East in FY2024. A sizing problem for the Tokyo session.
A 98%-Priced BOJ Hike Cannot Explain a 4% Yen Rally — What Tokyo Is Handing London
USD/JPY traded to 153.53 in Asia, the yen's strongest since February and about 4% in six sessions — while a BOJ hike on 18 September is priced at 97–98%. A fully priced event cannot explain the move. Here is what is actually driving it, and what it means for size into the London open.
USD/JPY Breaks 154 Before the BOJ Even Meets — What a Pre-Priced Hike Does to Your System
USD/JPY traded below 154 in Tokyo hours, the yen's strongest level since late February, with a 25bp BOJ hike on 18 September already largely priced. Here is what that leaves to trade, and why a five-month trend filter is the wrong tool this week.