外汇资讯
能撼动行情的事件、各时段的盘面状况与宏观脉络。写给用系统交易、而不是靠预测的人。
We Said the Risk Was on the Upside. Empire State Printed 7.60 and the Miss Was Thirteen Points the Other Way.
Yesterday this desk published three consensus readings for Empire State between 14.0 and 15.0 and argued the asymmetry was on the upside. September printed 7.60 against a 20.6 prior — a thirteen-point fall, and the miss was on the other tail. Every reading in the band was wrong by roughly half in the same direction, which is a different failure from bracketing the truth. New orders fell to 2.0 from 17.3, shipments went negative, and prices paid hit the highest since 2022 — a stagflationary shape twenty-nine hours before a Fed hike priced above 90%. Plus two figures of our own we are correcting unprompted.
Three Readers Want Empire State Between 14.0 and 15.0. The New York Fed Will Not Tell You Which Minute It Prints.
Empire State prints at 12:30 UTC and three readers give three consensus figures — 14.75, 15.0 and 14.0 — against an August prior of 20.6 that the New York Fed itself calls its highest reading in more than four years. We publish the band and settle the prior at the issuing institution. And the New York Fed does not promise a release minute: its own note says "at or shortly after 8:30 a.m.", so a symmetric news window is the wrong shape. Plus yesterday's UK cut closed: total pay printed +3.9%, exactly on consensus.
Canada Printed 3.0% and −0.1%. One Vendor Had the Year, the Other Had the Month.
Yesterday this desk published a 40-basis-point consensus gap on Canadian CPI and argued that one vendor's 2.0% was the Bank of Canada median core sitting in the headline field. The print settles it twice over: the headline held at 3.0% year on year, the month fell 0.1%, and CPI-median came in at exactly 2.0%. FXStreet had the year and missed the month by 40bp. InvestingLive had the month exactly and missed the year by a point. And the adjusted-versus-unadjusted hypothesis we published does not survive.
The Only 12:30 Print Today Is Canadian, and Two Vendors Are 40 Basis Points Apart on It
The pre-US window fires at 12:30 UTC today with no American number in it. One vendor has the Canadian consensus at +0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y; another at −0.1% and 2.0%. Statistics Canada's own July release says 3.0% — and 2.0% is the Bank of Canada median core, sitting in the wrong field. Second labelling failure from the same publisher in four sessions. Meanwhile London ran USD/JPY to 154.74 with nothing scheduled at all.