Berita FX
Peristiwa yang menggerakkan pasar, kondisi tiap sesi, dan latar makro. Ditulis untuk trader yang menjalankan sistem, bukan menebak arah.
155.24, Then Straight Back. The Yen Is Trading the Ten-Year — and Treasury Sells 20-Year Paper Into It at 17:00.
London ran USD/JPY through 155.00 to 155.24 on a ten-year at 5.0390% and handed all of it back when the yield gave up three basis points — the second failure at that figure in fourteen hours, and no link in either chain was Japanese. The ten-year went from "highest since October 2023" to "highest since July 2007" across about three basis points. Treasury sells 20-year paper into it at 17:00 UTC, six securities settle today, and the 20-year settles Friday on Bank of Japan morning.
A 70% Priced Hike, a 12:30 Print About August, and Brent Down 4.4% Since This Morning
The Fed is about 70% priced for next week, the BOJ fully priced for 17–18 September, and the ECB is being priced for October. Today's 12:30 print measures August — while Brent has fallen from $108.50 at 06:00 UTC to $103.76 at 11:45, two vendors agreeing, with no sourceable reason. Why the highest-probability CPI outcome resolves nothing.
Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night. Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.
WTI Near $90 Is a Correlation Problem Before It Is an Oil Trade
WTI is holding near $90 on US–Iran escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For an automated FX system the risk is not the oil price — it is that oil is now the shared input behind several positions you think are independent.