FX News
Market-moving events, session conditions, and macro context — written for traders who run systems, not predictions.
155.24, Then Straight Back. The Yen Is Trading the Ten-Year — and Treasury Sells 20-Year Paper Into It at 17:00.
London ran USD/JPY through 155.00 to 155.24 on a ten-year at 5.0390% and handed all of it back when the yield gave up three basis points — the second failure at that figure in fourteen hours, and no link in either chain was Japanese. The ten-year went from "highest since October 2023" to "highest since July 2007" across about three basis points. Treasury sells 20-year paper into it at 17:00 UTC, six securities settle today, and the 20-year settles Friday on Bank of Japan morning.
A 70% Priced Hike, a 12:30 Print About August, and Brent Down 4.4% Since This Morning
The Fed is about 70% priced for next week, the BOJ fully priced for 17–18 September, and the ECB is being priced for October. Today's 12:30 print measures August — while Brent has fallen from $108.50 at 06:00 UTC to $103.76 at 11:45, two vendors agreeing, with no sourceable reason. Why the highest-probability CPI outcome resolves nothing.
Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night. Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.
WTI Near $90 Is a Correlation Problem Before It Is an Oil Trade
WTI is holding near $90 on US–Iran escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For an automated FX system the risk is not the oil price — it is that oil is now the shared input behind several positions you think are independent.