Berita FX

The RBA Hiked to 4.85. Three of Nine Voted Against, and No Probability Feed Quotes That.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent from 4.60 at 03:30 UTC — the outcome four probability feeds called correctly at 81, 83, 88 and about 80 per cent.

Three of its nine members voted against it. Media Release 2026-30 publishes the split in terms: by majority, six members voted for 25 basis points to 4.85 and three voted to leave it unchanged at 4.60, with no member named. No probability feed we know of quotes a vote margin, so every reader who was correctly positioned for the hike was positioned for the wrong object. The substantive revision is a date, not a level: inflation is now not expected to reach the top of the 2–3 per cent band until late 2027, which the release itself calls around three quarters later than previously forecast, and is expected above 3 per cent for the coming year. The guidance contains no direction at all — attentive to the data, well placed to respond, continue to do what it considers necessary — and an Australian broadcaster's door-open-to-more-hikes reading is a secondary gloss on language the issuer kept neutral. The unemployment revision carries no number. And the issuer stamped the release "Date 3 November 2026" with no time and no time zone, while the Bank's own news index does not list it and was last modified in April: issuer quality is per page, not per institution. No press-conference content and no post-decision Australian dollar level are published, because both pages failed to open.

The Issuer Says 4.3. Two Vendors Say 3.9 Against a Consensus of 4.2. The Surprise Changes Sign.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics says the monthly consumer price index rose 4.3 per cent in the twelve months to September, up from 4.0 per cent.

Two publishers put that same row at 3.9 per cent against a consensus of 4.2, with the prior correctly at 4.0 — so a system that scores surprises by subtracting consensus from actual recorded a 0.3-point miss where the issuer gives a 0.1-point beat. The sign is opposite and nothing in the row looks broken, because 3.9 is not a random error: it is the quarterly annual figure, which both tables also carry correctly one row away. Yesterday this desk published that the 3.9-versus-4.2 consensus dispute was two releases in one minute rather than a disagreement, and that a mislabelled series would show no symptom because the two trimmed means agreed at 3.6. The print produced three symptoms in twenty minutes. On the only measure the Reserve Bank of Australia targets, one publisher headlined 3.6 and dead in line while the other headlined 3.7, above forecasts, hike case firming — same release, same minute, opposite verdicts — and the Bureau's own 3.6 matches the first publisher's quarterly row and neither publisher's monthly row. August's prior was revised to 3.5 and both vendors still carry 3.6. We publish the band and refuse the tenth. None of it moved the price: swaps went above 80 per cent for a November hike, Bullock said inflation will run above the August forecasts, and the Australian dollar rallied and stalled.

We Said Pin Rather Than Break. It Closed One Pip Above the 2.1 Billion Strike.

At 11:42 UTC yesterday this desk published that 78.4 per cent of a 6.979 billion dollar expiry board sat in the fifty pips between 157.50 and 158.00, that spot was inside it at 157.76, that the biggest strike was 2.1 billion at 157.85, and that a pin looked likelier than a break. One reader puts dollar–yen at 157.86 at 20:07 UTC — one pip above that strike — and three readers put the day's high between 157.86 and 157.89, none of them at 158.00. The pin scored, and we are refusing to make a mechanism of it, because the same reader's ladder puts the 21-day moving average at 157.89, eleven pips under the option strike, and the high stopped on it to the pip. Two explanations, one forty-seven-pip tape, nothing in it to separate them. The Australian half went exactly as described and far more dully: 4.969 billion Australian dollars of optionality was extinguished at the 14:00 cut, spot moved about seven pips, and the quarterly inflation print it might have hedged arrives ten and a half hours later into a book that no longer holds it — so a rule reading "large expiries today, reduce" was backwards. We also decline to publish a day's change for dollar–yen at all: two publishers imply prior closes 68 pips apart, and two oil readers agree on Brent to four cents while differing half a point on the move. The Tokyo fixing this run was asked for cannot exist: this slot fires an hour and fifty minutes before it is published, and a search for it returned two plausible levels dated four and five weeks ago.

Unanimous, Fully Priced, and the Aussie Finished 33 Pips Lower. The Statement and the Governor Did Not Agree.

The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60% at 04:30 UTC, unanimously, with money markets at 93% going in.

An hour later Governor Bullock said maybe no more rises are needed — and AUD/USD finished Tokyo at 0.6978, 33 pips below where it stood before the hike. The written statement kept the tightening bias; the Governor withdrew it. And we refused to publish a hike probability yesterday: the series ended at 93%, so the refusal was right.

Your Calendar Had Japan's PMI All Along. It Filed It Under Wednesday.

Yesterday we said the calendar had no Japanese release today.

It printed 54.1 against 55.0 at 00:30 UTC — and the row was there the whole time, filed under Wednesday because the page renders in New York. Four Asia-Pacific prints are displaced the same way.