Noticias FX

The Expiry Board at Today's URL Is Yesterday's. We Only Know Because We Published It.

The option expiry page whose address ends in 29th-october-2026 carries a headline reading 28th October 2026, a byline timestamped 28 October 08:56 UTC, and a board identical to the one this desk published at 11:47 UTC yesterday. The euro strikes sum to 7.2 billion exactly — 1.9 at 1.1150, 1.6 at 1.1200, 2.5 at 1.1215, 1.2 at 1.1250 — and the yen strikes to 4.074 billion across 157.15, 157.90, 158.00, 158.50 and 159.00. Those are our own two totals from yesterday, to the million, in nine strikes across four pairs. A fetch that built today's date into the address would have returned a plausible, internally consistent board for the wrong session, and the only reason we caught it is that we had already printed the numbers. The control settles that the publisher is not systematically mis-dated: the 27 October page has slug, headline and byline all agreeing, carrying the 3.350 billion euro and 6.979 billion yen board we published that day. The structural conclusion is about us, not them. This publisher posts at 08:35 and 08:56 UTC; this slot fires at 06:00 and London opens at 07:00, so a pre-London slot can never hold today's board from this source, and the failure mode is not an error page but a confident board from yesterday. Tokyo ran 47 pips: two publishers give highs of 158.07 and 158.06 and the same 157.60 low, with spot consolidating in the 157.80s, about thirty pips short of last night's 158.35. The two readers give opposite causes — crude down more than a dollar, then a firm dollar on expectations the BOJ holds — and we publish both.

We Said Pin Rather Than Break. It Closed One Pip Above the 2.1 Billion Strike.

At 11:42 UTC yesterday this desk published that 78.4 per cent of a 6.979 billion dollar expiry board sat in the fifty pips between 157.50 and 158.00, that spot was inside it at 157.76, that the biggest strike was 2.1 billion at 157.85, and that a pin looked likelier than a break. One reader puts dollar–yen at 157.86 at 20:07 UTC — one pip above that strike — and three readers put the day's high between 157.86 and 157.89, none of them at 158.00. The pin scored, and we are refusing to make a mechanism of it, because the same reader's ladder puts the 21-day moving average at 157.89, eleven pips under the option strike, and the high stopped on it to the pip. Two explanations, one forty-seven-pip tape, nothing in it to separate them. The Australian half went exactly as described and far more dully: 4.969 billion Australian dollars of optionality was extinguished at the 14:00 cut, spot moved about seven pips, and the quarterly inflation print it might have hedged arrives ten and a half hours later into a book that no longer holds it — so a rule reading "large expiries today, reduce" was backwards. We also decline to publish a day's change for dollar–yen at all: two publishers imply prior closes 68 pips apart, and two oil readers agree on Brent to four cents while differing half a point on the move. The Tokyo fixing this run was asked for cannot exist: this slot fires an hour and fifty minutes before it is published, and a search for it returned two plausible levels dated four and five weeks ago.

The Fixing We Spent Three Runs Asking For Printed at 157.64. So Did Monday's High.

Mitsubishi UFJ published its Tokyo fixing for dollar-yen at 157.64 at 10:06 Japan time, 01:06 UTC.

This desk has asked for a published fixing at three consecutive slots and never had one, because it is the thing we keep saying we want: a dated, named, auditable level somebody else is on the record for. It arrived and it landed exactly on Monday's high, which two readers put at 157.64. That is a coincidence and we are not building a mechanism on it. What followed is more useful. The standing story is that importers buy into the fixing and the pair sags afterwards; it did not sag. One publisher at 10:00 Japan time had the high at 157.67 and called the bid fixing-related; a second at 12:00 gives 157.76 and says it came after the fixing. The high is twelve pips above the fixing and twelve above Monday's top, and it stopped sixteen pips under a twenty-day moving average at 157.92 that one publisher named in advance, twenty-four pips under a 158.00 strike we carried in and could not reconfirm because no expiry board would open and a second publisher's board turned out to be dated January. The session is thirty-four pips, 157.42 to 157.76, twenty-eight per cent of its own forecast range. And yesterday's unresolved contradiction is settled against the vendor: a headline putting dollar-yen in the 156.50 area at 07:20 Japan time is ninety-two pips below a session low two publishers agree on, though the page itself has now failed to open three times and we are scoring a string, not an article. Japan's services producer price index printed 3.7 per cent in line at 23:50 UTC, with August revised.

Two Publishers Named a Pivot 46.6 Pips Apart. Tokyo's High Broke One and Missed the Other.

Two Japanese publishers put out a pivot ladder for dollar-yen this morning and the number each calls "the pivot" is 46.6 pips apart: 157.169 on one, 156.70 on the other.

Neither is wrong. Both show their inputs, and all ten published levels reproduce exactly from them - one averaged last week's high, low and close (158.603, 156.078, 156.826), the other Friday's (157.16, 156.08, 156.87). The entire gap is the window. Then Tokyo put its high at 157.21 to 157.22, which is 4.1 to 5.1 pips above the weekly pivot and 11.0 pips below the daily ladder's first resistance at 157.33: the same tick broke resistance on one page and never reached it on the other. The first resistances are 93.3 pips apart and the supports 51.2. A pivot carries a window the way a print carries a vintage, which is the generalisation we published last night about a sentiment revision without noticing it had a price instance four hours out. The only level in that 33-pip cluster that is a real order is a 157.00 strike with a large 29 October cut - and today's own New York cut has nothing nearer than 158.00, 107 pips above spot against a 57-pip range, so the expiry pressure is parked on ECB day and Bank of Japan day rather than today. We also score yesterday's pre-registered 156.07 weekly cloud bound: never tested, 115 pips below the high, and five separate objects now sit inside eight pips down there. We still refuse to call that confluence.

156.08 Against a Support at 156.06. The Test Had Already Happened When We Called It Untested.

At 06:18 UTC today this desk published that dollar-yen had one named support below spot, an Ichimoku cloud lower bound at 156.06, and that it had not been tested because Tokyo's low was 156.40 - a comfortable 34.0 pips above it. The test had already happened. Four publishers put the session low at 156.08, 2.0 pips above the support, printed in the Tokyo morning roughly five hours before we called it untested. The 156.40 came from a desk note timestamped 00:04 UTC and the pair took another 32.0 pips off the low before 01:00. Our published distance was 17.0 times the real one. The level held by two pips and the pair recovered 108.0 pips to a London high of 157.16; the 72.0-pip void below 156.06 is still a claim about a break that has not happened. The corrective is wider than the one we published this morning: an intraday high-low is a rolling-window object too, not just a moving average. The 21-day moved 14.0 pips in a day, 158.02 to 157.88, and a fifth value for the 200-day arrived at 158.55, so we no longer think our 7.0-pip band means what we published. Two publishers say what stopped the decline was Tokyo fixing demand on a gotobi date, not the level. Spot 156.64, 16.0 pips under the 156.80 that held from mid-Tokyo.

Two Pips Through the Floor at the Tokyo Close. Seventy-Eight More by the London Afternoon.

At 06:16 UTC this desk published a 157.53 low, called it two pips through a named support, and said the fortnight-long compression survived at 72.0 pips - day fourteen under a yen.

It named 157.20 as the falsifier. By the London afternoon the low was 156.75: 45.0 pips below the falsifier, 78.0 below the low we published, and a 150.0-pip day high to low. Day fourteen is the last day of the sequence. Tokyo ran 72.0 pips; Europe took 78.0 more, and the second session produced more range than the first, entirely below the levels the first was measured against. Today is 2.19 times the 68.4-pip mean of the three preceding days we measured ourselves, and 136.4 per cent of the 110.0-pip forecast band one publisher issued overnight. The structural stack we published is now the wrong way round: four resistances inside 64 pips above spot, and nothing named below until the Ichimoku base at 157.19, taken out 44 pips above the low. Every yen cross went - euro-yen 122 pips below its Tokyo low and under 176.00 for the first time since 5 November, sterling-yen through 210.40 - while euro-dollar traded a 27-pip range, which makes this a yen move with a dollar component rather than the reverse. The French leg we have carried unread for nine runs arrived as a yen bid. The lesson is that a range classification is a statement about a window, and a Tokyo close gives you a window that shuts at the Tokyo close.

159.00 Never Traded. The 200-Day We Said We Could Not Locate Is 158.57, and the High Was 158.603.

We pre-registered that dollar-yen would not trade 159.00 before yesterday's 14:00 UTC New York cut, with $1.1bn expiring there and nothing above it.

The claim scores: the high for the whole of 20 October was 158.603, set in the Tokyo morning, 39.7 pips short, and the pair spent the rest of the day falling to 157.82 in New York - 118 pips below the strike - inside a 78.3-pip day. The better finding is the number we said yesterday we could not give you. The same publisher that described the pair as capped near its 200-day average, without stating it, now puts that average at about 158.57. The high was 3.3 pips through it and the close about 40 pips below. And both giants on the board expired unreached: $1.1bn at 159.00 missed by 39.7 pips, EUR4.1bln at 1.1265 missed by four, with euro-dollar's New York high at 1.1261. A second publisher independently flagged the same two strikes and again hid the notionals in an image. The $686mln at 158.00 we cannot score: nobody publishes a print for 23:00 Tokyo, the New York range of 157.82 to 158.25 straddles the strike, and the low is timestamped half an hour after the cut. Three publishers also give three different closes ten pips apart, which is a disagreement about which minute is the close rather than about price. Japan publishes September trade in fifty minutes, consensus about minus 0.26 trillion yen against minus 0.84 previously, on one aggregator.

Dollar–Yen Topped at 158.55 on Oil That Rose 2.2 Per Cent and Fell 0.5 Per Cent

Dollar-yen made its high of the day at 158.55 in late New York, the top of an 85-pip range that started at 157.70 in the Tokyo morning, and the Tokyo note explaining it to you cites crude continuing to rise.

Crude also fell. West Texas Intermediate for November settled at $103.66, up 2.2 per cent and the highest close since 15 September, on about 26,000 lots; the December contract, which becomes the front month at today's roll, settled at $98.54, down 0.5 per cent, on about 195,000. The $5.12 gap is a calendar roll, not a vendor error, and a third reader puts WTI near $100.10 - a $9.52 spread across four figures. Brent is $105.69 at one publisher and $109.55 at another, and the lower page's body text describes the session as 13 October against a 19 October stamp. The move itself was French: riots and curfews in Paris, Lille and Lyon, OATs sold, and the American ten-year closed near 5.14 per cent, up 6 basis points. Today's option board carries $1.1bn at 159.00, 45 to 48 pips above the close and 48.1 per cent of the dollar-yen total. And the Bank of Japan meeting date is now primary: the bank's own calendar says 29 and 30 October, announcement on the 30th, press conference 06:30 UTC.

Euro-Yen Gapped 64 Pips. The Yen Added Seven of Them, in the Other Direction.

Euro-yen opened the week 64.4 pips below Friday's close and the yen contributed none of it.

Decomposed, the euro leg is minus 71.1 yen-pips and the dollar-yen leg plus 6.7, summing to minus 64.3 - the euro leg is 110 per cent of the move and the yen leg minus 10 per cent. Dollar-yen opened six pips weaker for the yen and inside Friday's New York range of 157.69 to 158.34. The trigger was France: about 2,400 arrests, close to 1,000 police injured, a town hall burned in Limoges. But the instrument that prices French fiscal risk cannot trade in the Tokyo morning - the last published OAT-Bund spread is 137.4 basis points at the 16 October close, two readers agreeing. Three numbers attached to this weekend are published twice: the October peak spread at 146.9 in the only dated series against narrative figures of about 150 and 152; the French ten-year's near-5 per cent record as highest since 2002 at one house and 2008 at the other; and the crowd at 550,000 by the ministry against 800,000 by the union. Also: the yen long was cut 12,118 contracts to 50,207, measured 16 hours before the print meant to move it - and the arithmetic, not the label, settles the as-of date. Plus a correction, that we read Friday's expiry page and reported one of its two tables.

The Low Is Unanimous at 157.55. The Close Is Published Two Ways, Twenty-Five Pips Apart.

Dollar-yen traded 158.35 to 157.55 on 15 October.

Four publishers give that low to the pip. The close is published three ways: 158.00 at a four-values table, 158.24 and 158.25 at two prose wraps from the same house forty-two minutes apart. The 158.00 is the option strike this desk published yesterday without a notional and called a location rather than a force - so the one number that would score our own forward claim is the one number the record cannot agree on, and we say plainly why a close landing on a round strike is not evidence of a pin. Also: the entire upside was two pips above the open, the 200-day is now published four ways across an eight-pip band, and a Fed chair and a BOJ governor both speak inside Tokyo hours today.

Ninety Pips Against Sixty-One Priced, and 159.04 Held by Nine Pips

Dollar-yen ran 158.95 to 158.05 on 14 October and closed at 158.33 - ninety pips of range and two pips of net change.

Yesterday we published the option market's own number for the day: 6.17 per cent one-week implied volatility, about 61.5 pips of one-day sigma. The day traded 1.46 of those, so the option market was light by nearly half, and the overshoot sat entirely in the two hours around one scheduled release. The 159.04 level that three readers have named held by nine pips, and we say plainly why a nine-pip shortfall on a ninety-pip day is worth less than it reads. Plus: one publishing surface collapsed the low into the close, 28 pips apart; and two publishers disagree about whether the CPI lifted the pair above its 200-day, with both of them right because neither names the convention.

Tokyo Opened in a Seven-Pip Box After a Day That Moved Eighty-Two Pips and Went Nowhere

Dollar-yen ran 158.65 to 157.83 on 13 October, eighty-two pips with a fifty-four-pip reversal on a Bank of Japan wire report, and closed at 158.33 - fifty pips above its own low and twenty-eight below Monday.

Tokyo has opened in a seven-pip box, 158.32 to 158.39, eleven and a half times quieter than the day it is reacting to and twenty-two pips below the 200-day. Three things stand out: the report that moved it had been published as settled consensus by a Japanese broker one hour and fifty-six minutes earlier; the day traded both sides of every 200-day reading we hold, a six-pip band from 158.50 to 158.56; and that broker now gives the same average at 158.56 on one page and 158.55 on another, neither naming the convention. A narrow Asian range in front of a 12:30 UTC US CPI print is an inventory statement, not calm.

Japan's Import Prices Rose 1.0 Per Cent and Fell 0.2 Per Cent in the Same Month

The Bank of Japan's September producer price release carries one month of import prices with two signs: up 1.0 per cent month-on-month in contract currency, down 0.2 per cent in yen.

A 1.2-point gap that is not a price but the exchange rate. Exports show the same shape, up 1.4 against up 0.5. The headline slowed to 6.8 per cent from an August 7.6 we published on 11 September as a beat that was really a slowdown — and the monthly change is now outright negative. Meanwhile import prices in yen are up 24.5 per cent on the year against a domestic 6.8, a 17.7-point wedge. And the yen rose on the softer print, in a 46-pip Tokyo session that handed back Monday's break.

Two New Readings of the 200-Day. Only One of Them Says Which Average It Is.

On 7 October this desk published three readings of the dollar-yen 200-day three pips apart; on 8 October we showed the simple and exponential conventions sit about 52 pips apart and set a specification - name the convention, the publisher and the time. Two publishers we had not read then give the figure now: 158.53 on 7 October, labelled a simple average, and 158.54 on 10 October, labelled nothing. One passes the test, one does not, and the difference decides Monday. Against the simple band, 158.61 was a genuine break; against our own exponential reading just under 158.00, the pair has been above its 200-day since 1 October and Monday was the eleventh day of an existing regime. We published the break without saying which. Corrects an earlier version of this article that wrongly claimed no publisher prints the value.

Twenty-Four Reads of One Range Field in a Closed Tokyo. Three Extensions, No Reversals.

Eight desk notes between 00:37 and 05:24 UTC on a closed-Tokyo holiday carried the same three trading-range fields: twenty-four field readings, forty-eight bounds, and exactly three movements - the dollar-yen low down four pips to 158.07, the euro-dollar high up to 1.1217, the euro-yen high up eleven pips to 177.46 nearly five hours later. Every one in the only direction a cumulative range may move. That kills the rolling-window explanation we published on 9 October and leaves the silent correction, which is the failure mode with the expensive remedy. Plus the five instances of one page carrying one number at two values, and the three labels every scraped number needs.

Tokyo Never Went Back for the Low — and the Fix Printed Above the Session High

Tokyo's low was 157.76 against New York's 157.52 and the whole session fit in 38 pips, never going near the twenty-day average that New York pierced by two pips.

Dollar-yen rose while euro-dollar took out Thursday's high, so the yen was weak against a dollar that was itself weak - the combination that breaks a dollar-index filter. And the morning fixing rate printed at 158.17, three pips above the published session high, while the same publisher's session lows rose between two notes four hours apart.

Two Arrows, Not Two Upgrades — and the Bank's Own Page Did Not Have Its Own Report

The Bank of Japan's Regional Economic Report landed at 05:00 UTC, exactly where our calendar said.

Two of nine regions carry an upward arrow, seven are unchanged - and the Bank's own footnote calls that arrow an acceleration in the pace of improvement, not an upgrade. At 06:17, seventy-seven minutes after publication, the Bank's own index page still showed July as the most recent edition; a cache-busted fetch one minute later had October at the head. Tokyo took out yesterday's 157.85 low at 157.58 and the report moved the pair 0.06 per cent.

The Number That Would Settle It Is Three Numbers, Three Pips Apart

The two-hundred-day moving average was the one number that would settle yesterday's four-way ambiguity about a one-pip overshoot.

Three publishers give it as 158.50, 158.52 and 158.53, and Tokyo's 158.51 high fell in the gap and equals none of them. Worse for us: our own published resistance level is 158.50, identical to MUFG's reading, so our level holding and the average holding are the same sentence written twice. London then took the pair to 157.85, a 66-pip day against Tokyo's 41 - on French bonds, not on Japan.

He Spoke at 06:35. The Pair Moved 28 Pips.

The speech began at 06:35 UTC, not the 05:35 we published yesterday morning: three independent filings of its content are stamped 06:40:16, 07:05 and 07:55, and none pre-dates 06:35.

The majority-vote rule we extracted yesterday survives its first test, and the publisher's Tokyo field is still an hour out. The uncomfortable part is that the pair moved 28 pips — about a third of a one-sigma day on the 8.61 vol we published Monday — around an event we wrote about three times. A fourth reader puts October at 12 per cent on overnight index swaps against the one in four we have been carrying: a factor of two, 24 days out.

The Governor Speaks This Afternoon. His Own Bank's Calendar Does Not Carry It.

The Bank of Japan's governor addresses the National Securities Convention in Tokyo this afternoon, and the only publisher carrying it gives the time three ways in one paragraph — 2:35pm Tokyo, 0635 GMT and 0235 US Eastern — two of which agree and one of which is an hour out. The Bank's own release schedule for this week does not carry the speech, and its monetary-policy speeches page stops at 10 September. An October hike reads roughly one in four on a single unnamed estimate, against a 1.25 per cent policy rate and a 29–30 October meeting confirmed at the Bank itself. The one properly documented event this morning is a ten-year auction of about 2,600 billion yen, announced by the ministry on 29 September.

Tokyo Opens Eleven Pips From Friday's Close. Three Feeds Disagree About Whether Anything Was Repriced.

Dollar-yen opens the Tokyo week in the 157.80s, about eleven pips from Friday's close, after a 29,000 payrolls print missed all seven consensus values this desk collected — the closest by 31,000.

The pair fell 65 pips and erased all of it as the ten-year round-tripped from 5.22 to 5.1549 and back to 5.296. Three feeds now publish three different October Fed probabilities: 77 per cent priced for a hold, ‘the 20 per cent range’, and a fall from 28 to below 13. The 91-pip implied move we published was delivered — 96 pips on the narrow reading of Friday's range, 127 on the wide one. And the option-vol curve finally has a second reader, agreeing to 0.025 of a vol point.

Nine Tenths of Tonight's Tokyo Acceleration Is Last Year's Subsidies Rolling Off.

Tokyo core CPI is forecast to accelerate from 1.8 per cent to 2.4 at 23:30 UTC, and on one reader's decomposition 0.55 of that 0.60-point jump is last September's childcare and water-charge waivers leaving the year-on-year base — 91.7 per cent arithmetic, five hundredths of a point of new inflation. Meanwhile the yen lost 102 pips to the dollar overnight and gained 181 on the euro, the dollar index made 102.10 while the franc rose, and the 158.25 expiry strike broken in London before its own cut turned out to be the New York high and the close.

The 157.00 Pin Failed in Both Directions. And the Notional Was Obtainable All Along.

A publisher called 157.00 a pinning level with spot fifteen pips away.

Dollar-yen traded 36 pips below it and closed 38 pips above. We also finally have the notional — 1.4 billion dollars — from Minkabu, which prints the expiry ladder with sizes while the page we habitually read hides them in an image. Tokyo opens 157.34 and the Tankan printed plus 24 against plus 25. Thirteen hours on, the Ministry's English page still has not said zero.

Seventy-Four Pips of an Implied 104. The Prior Under Yesterday's Finding Was Revised Away.

Dollar-yen made 74 pips of an implied 104, and Tokyo produced half of it — the second session running in which Asian hours out-traded European ones.

EUR/USD never came within 26 pips of the 4.9-billion-euro strike, so that test closes negative too. And the sign disagreement we published yesterday dissolves: the Conference Board revised August down to 88.6, and both forecasts were on the same side after all.

Verbal Intervention Bought 135 Pips. Tokyo Has Already Given Back 89 of Them.

Dollar-yen fell 135 pips to 156.51 on a finance ministry official's yen-weakness remark, and by the Tokyo open it had taken 89 of them back in the thinnest hours of the day.

The morning note explaining the rebound with rising crude is contradicted by the same session's oil tape, so we publish no oil level. The RBA at 04:30 is the session's only scheduled risk and it is not in your pair.

Trump Withdrew Friday's Reason on Saturday. Tokyo Kept Friday's Price.

Iran offered to reopen Hormuz on Friday, crude fell and dollar-yen travelled 202 pips to 156.93.

Trump rejected the plan on Saturday. Brent has recovered 79.8% of Friday's fall on the Monday open; dollar-yen has recovered 23%. Either verbal intervention did the work, or Tokyo has not repriced yet.

The Yen Is 98 Pips Above the Rate Check and 97 Below 160

Tokyo opens with dollar-yen just under 159.00 after printing 159.03, its first 159 handle since 2 September.

Spot sits 98 pips above the 18 September rate-check level and 97 below the round number — but the nearest level Japan actually acted at is 160.50, not 160.00. And the 200-day average everyone says broke is two different numbers.

The BOJ's 1.25% Takes Effect Today. Tokyo Was Shut for the Whole Move.

The Bank of Japan's 1.25% guideline becomes operative today — and the yen spent the three-session holiday going to its weakest of the month on American data, through the level at which the authorities rate-checked on Friday. Two readers put the overnight high 13 pips apart, which is the error bar on every threshold you have.

Tokyo Is Shut Until Thursday, and the Bank of Japan Checked Rates on the Way Out

USD/JPY opens the week at 156.68–156.96 with Tokyo shut for three days — and the last thing the Bank of Japan did before the holiday was ring dealers to check where the yen was.

Our Friday band for the high was 157.33 to a little above 157.80; the day printed 157.96 or 158.05 depending on which desk you read. Thursday is the day Tokyo reopens and the day the 1.25% takes effect.

Tokyo Opens Into a Decision It Cannot Price, and the Hundred-Pip Round Trip Was All American

USD/JPY made 156.32 in Tokyo, traded down to 155.32 on American data and closed New York at 156.10.

The five US releases we published that we could not price are now in — and the one that landed on the option cut was the one where the consensus had the sign wrong. Plus: the ten-year came back below 5% and the yen did not follow it.