Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
Tokyo opens with dollar-yen just under 159.00 after printing 159.03, its first 159 handle since 2 September.
Spot sits 98 pips above the 18 September rate-check level and 97 below the round number — but the nearest level Japan actually acted at is 160.50, not 160.00. And the 200-day average everyone says broke is two different numbers.
USD/JPY opens the week at 156.68–156.96 with Tokyo shut for three days — and the last thing the Bank of Japan did before the holiday was ring dealers to check where the yen was.
Our Friday band for the high was 157.33 to a little above 157.80; the day printed 157.96 or 158.05 depending on which desk you read. Thursday is the day Tokyo reopens and the day the 1.25% takes effect.
New York took USD/JPY from 154.86 to 156.42 overnight — one publisher's reading, and we say so.
The 155.00 level that took three attempts and thirty-six hours to clear is now more than a figure below the market, because the driver changed. Japan's CPI lands at 23:30 UTC and the Bank of Japan decides about three and a half hours later, with 66 of 68 economists already expecting the hike — which means the surprise risk is stacked on the side that hurts the yen.
USD/JPY has taken 155.00 three times in thirty-six hours.
The first two were handed straight back inside the session; the third stuck — New York closed 155.10, seventy-five sen up, on a 154.21–155.24 range, with the ten-year at a nineteen-year 5.0390% and the Dow down 399. Three sessions running, every link in the yen's chain has been American. At 23:50 UTC Japan finally supplies its own numbers — trade balance, exports, imports and core machinery orders in one minute — and on the evidence of the last three sessions Tokyo will not trade a single one of them. We are putting that in writing so it can be marked.
Five sessions of yen buying into a wall of dollar-positive news, then a squeeze on the sixth: USD/JPY traded 153.85–154.67 and Gaitame's morning range is 153.600–155.300.
Japan's own producer prices land at 23:50 UTC expected at 7.4% year on year — two full points hotter than the American PPI that moved the dollar. Why a five-day trend ending on day six is the exact shape that costs money.