Notícias FX
Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
We Published a Prediction With a Ten-Minute Window. Nothing We Read Measures Ten Minutes.
Last night this desk published its first falsifiable prediction with a threshold and a deadline: no more than twenty pips in the ten minutes after Japan's 23:50 trade balance. We cannot mark it. Our sources publish hourly, the Tokyo morning spanned forty pips, and the answer sits in the twenty-to-forty band we cannot resolve. Six and a half hours on we still could not read what Japan printed. And the ONS spent twenty-one minutes this morning serving two pages that disagreed about whether UK CPI existed — one saying "not yet published", the other carrying 3.1%.
Your Oil Inventory Window Is on the Wrong Day This Week — and the Wrong Hour
Labor Day moved the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report to Thursday 10 September at 16:00 UTC — a different day and a different hour from its usual 14:30 UTC Wednesday slot. API runs tonight at 20:30 UTC. Natural gas storage stays at Thursday 14:30. Two published calendars and our own week-ahead table had it wrong. Why a shifted window costs more than a missing one.