Eventos que mexem com o mercado, condições de cada sessão e cenário macro. Escrito para quem opera com sistema, não com palpite.
The AfD took a record 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday and the euro barely moved.
For a system trader the non-reaction is the useful data point — and it says something specific about what a volatility filter should have done.
WTI is holding near $90 on US–Iran escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
For an automated FX system the risk is not the oil price — it is that oil is now the shared input behind several positions you think are independent.
August payrolls came in at 162K against a consensus near 56K, and September Fed hike odds went from roughly half to about two-thirds.
August CPI is released Friday 11 September at 12:30 UTC. Here is how to size the window, and why the disagreement matters more than the direction.
USD/JPY traded below 154 in Tokyo hours, the yen's strongest level since late February, with a 25bp BOJ hike on 18 September already largely priced.
Here is what that leaves to trade, and why a five-month trend filter is the wrong tool this week.
AUD/JPY is sitting mid-range around 114.50 with order clusters above and below.
Here is how a system trader should read that, why the JPY crosses are a concentration risk right now, and which events reshape the picture tonight.