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タグ: dissent 解除

2026年10月29日木曜日 · 1 本

ECB deposit rate

The ECB Holds at 2.50 With Inflation at 3.8. The Quarter's Growth Number Publishes Tomorrow.

At 13:15 UTC the European Central Bank is expected to leave the deposit rate at 2.50 per cent, six weeks after a 25bp hike put it there.

September euro-area headline inflation printed 3.8 per cent year-on-year against a market view of 3.6 and a prior of 3.2 — a six-tenths jump in one month and 1.8 points above target — with energy at 18.9 per cent year-on-year, up from 14.3, contributing 1.71 points of the headline against 1.29 before. So the headline was moved by one line item the Council cannot influence, which is a defensible reason to wait and an uncomfortable thing to say at a press conference. The pricing is what makes today small: roughly 20 basis points of tightening to end-2026 with only one or two attributed to this meeting, and one meeting left after it, so December holds essentially the whole move. An event priced at one or two basis points cannot deliver a dovish surprise — there is nothing to take out — and the only tail is hawkish, which means a two-way sizing is wrong in both directions. The inversion against Wednesday is exact: the Fed held 10–2 with both dissents for a hike and its entire hawkish signal lived in the vote, while the two-year fell 3.1 basis points to 4.706 and the ten- and thirty-year rose 3.3 and 4.6 to 5.024 and 5.351. The ECB publishes no vote at all, so the field that carried Wednesday's information does not exist today. And the Council's data dependence runs one day early: German flash GDP and its own forecaster survey publish at 09:00 UTC tomorrow, euro-area Q3 flash GDP at 10:00, German flash CPI at 13:00. Tonight's 44 billion dollar seven-year is scored against the last seven-year at 5.085 per cent, single-sourced.

2026年10月28日水曜日 · 1 本

FOMC Fed

The Fed Held 10–2 and Both Dissents Were for a Hike. The Two-Year Fell.

The Federal Open Market Committee held at 3-3/4 to 4 per cent, ten votes to two, and both dissents were for a quarter-point increase — Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland's Beth M. Hammack.

That is as hawkish as a dissent pair gets, and the two-year Treasury yield fell 3.1 basis points to 4.706 per cent on the day. The ten-year rose 3.3 to 5.024 and the thirty-year 4.6 to 5.351: roughly seven and a half basis points of steepening on a meeting where two officials asked for tighter policy. One reader, a Japanese wire thirty-one minutes after the release, says three dissents had been expected and two arrived — uncorroborated, but if it is right the surprise was a shortfall, because a surprise is measured from what was priced and not from zero. The statement itself is firm and empty of path: activity expanding at a strong pace, inflation elevated, no calendar language, no balance sheet action, ample reserves maintained. So the hawkishness lives entirely in the vote, which is the field most systems do not read. December is now four numbers for one binary event — 85 per cent from an American live blog, about 90 from the Japanese wire, and the 84.4 against 82.5 we published yesterday from two readings of one tool — a band from 82.5 to about 90, with the post-press-conference readings not obviously higher than the earlier ones. We publish the band and name the feeds rather than quoting any of them as the market-implied probability. Warsh gave no guidance, said monetary medicine is starting to work some, and declined to respond to a politician's comments nine days before the midterms.

2026年9月28日月曜日 · 1 本

JPY

In July the Bank Said Six Months Might Be Too Slow. It Hiked in Ninety-Four Days.

The July minutes, released at 23:50 UTC last night, record the Board noting that the market expected rate rises at intervals of about six months — and warning the pace could be faster.

The Bank then hiked ninety-four days after the previous increase, 51.6% of the expected interval. And in seven weeks the dissent changed sides: one hawk alone in July, two doves in September, policy landing on the hawk's number.

2026年9月18日金曜日 · 1 本

JPY

Seven to Two, and Four of Nine Dissented From Something

The Bank of Japan went to 1.25% by seven votes to two — and two members who voted for the hike separately objected that the Bank's price outlook is too low.

Four of nine dissented from something, in opposite directions, on the morning core CPI fell to 1.7%. None of that is a field on your calendar.

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