157.55 Was the Floor. The Low Is 157.53, and Day Fourteen Under a Yen Survives.
Dollar-yen traded through its floor in the Tokyo session and the compression survived anyway.
One publisher named support at 157.55 and a forecast range of 157.500 to 158.600 at 22:39 UTC yesterday; the session low printed 157.53, two pips through the support and three above the band's bottom, and the 157.80 print at 03:15 UTC took out Tuesday's 157.83 and Wednesday's 157.84 in one move. Yet 157.53 to 158.25 is only 72.0 pips, so this is day fourteen of sub-one-yen trading on that publisher's count. We cannot second-source the count, but we have independently measured the last three days at 78.3, 55.0 and 72.0 pips from other publishers, which corroborates the mechanism over three sessions without confirming a fourteen-day length. The structural reason the upside stalls: with spot at 157.92 there were four levels inside 64 pips above it - the 21-day at 158.02, the 10-day at 158.23, the Ichimoku conversion at 158.25 and the 200-day at 158.56 - in a market averaging 68 pips a day. And the 200-day itself cannot be stated to better than a 4-pip band: 158.56, 158.57 and about 158.60, with one publisher disagreeing with itself a day apart. The driver is a Tesla capital expenditure cut and a Gulf tanker report, not Japan, which makes a yen position this morning an equity-volatility position wearing a currency ticker. One source gives a session low 23 pips away from its own range field and we say so rather than resolving it.