The Summary Answered Our Question and Ignored the Market's. October Fell Below Twenty Per Cent.
The Bank of Japan's September Summary of Opinions is full of hawkish views and the yen fell half a per cent on it, because it said nothing about October.
What it did say is that the neutral rate should be reassessed after every hike rather than assumed fixed — which discharges the terminal-rate question we opened on 28 September. October odds are below twenty per cent on two post-event readers; a third is excluded because it predates the release. And our 4.77-yen Tankan gap was 3.11: the assumed rate moved to 154.23.