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Kamis, 01 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY

The Summary Answered Our Question and Ignored the Market's. October Fell Below Twenty Per Cent.

The Bank of Japan's September Summary of Opinions is full of hawkish views and the yen fell half a per cent on it, because it said nothing about October.

What it did say is that the neutral rate should be reassessed after every hike rather than assumed fixed — which discharges the terminal-rate question we opened on 28 September. October odds are below twenty per cent on two post-event readers; a third is excluded because it predates the release. And our 4.77-yen Tankan gap was 3.11: the assumed rate moved to 154.23.

Rabu, 30 September 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY USDJPY

Zero. And the Ministry's Own English Page Still Has Not Said So.

The Ministry of Finance published zero for 27 August to 28 September at 10:01 UTC, and three wires had it inside thirteen minutes.

Our 10:00 convention held and our reading that September's defence was words held. But at 11:50 the Ministry's own English page still listed July–August as its latest entry and the September URL returned a 404 — the primary source was the last place the number existed. The day-by-day data lands 2–9 November.

Selasa, 29 September 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY USDJPY

The Last Window Cost a Record 15.4 Trillion Yen. Today We Learn What September Cost.

Japan spent a record 15 trillion 399.3 billion yen defending the yen between 30 July and 26 August.

Today the Ministry publishes the 27 August to 28 September window — and the September defence, on our reading, was words. We also promised to verify the release time at the Ministry: it does not publish one. Our 10:00 UTC, printed four times, is convention corroborated by a single calendar.

Senin, 28 September 2026 · 1 catatan

calendar PCE

Nothing Prints Today. Wednesday Prints Four Things in the Same Minute.

Monday 28 September carries no scheduled data release in the US, euro area, UK or Japan — five central-bank speakers and one 4.5-billion-euro option strike.

Wednesday puts core PCE, final GDP, personal income and personal spending in the same minute, on the last day of the quarter. And two calendars disagree about Lagarde by thirty minutes.

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