Berita FX

The BOJ Revised 2027 Inflation Up and 2027 Growth Down. The Yen Moved 40 Pips.

The Bank of Japan held at around 1.25 per cent, 8 to 1, with Hajime Takata dissenting for 1.5 per cent — and the Outlook Report moved three of its six point estimates.

Fiscal 2027 core inflation went to +2.6 per cent from +2.4, and fiscal 2027 real GDP to +0.7 from +0.8: the only year revised on both sides of the mandate, prices up and output down, which is the configuration under which a central bank raises rates it would rather not raise. Fiscal 2026 growth went to +0.7 from +0.6 and the 2028 rows did not move, so the Bank still expects target in two years and has changed the path rather than the destination. Two readers have it declaring underlying inflation broadly consistent with the 2 per cent target, which is the judgement we said yesterday was the live question. Dollar–yen was 157.52 eight minutes before the statement and 157.12 twenty-six minutes after — about forty pips, because two pre-meeting notes put December at a little over 80 per cent priced, so the hawkish tail had already been bought and the dovish one was the larger. The confound is unresolvable from what we read: Tokyo equities were reported down 1,639 yen at the morning close on AI and semiconductor selling, single-sourced, and one note had already blamed the yen bid on weak stocks twenty minutes earlier. Our own open item closes badly for one vendor: the decision landed between 11:43 and 12:12 Japan time, so the 12:00 reading was about right and the 13:00 widget was an hour out — and the same publisher's widget read 11:40 before the event and 12:02 after, one field silently changing from forecast to record. Ueda speaks at 06:30 UTC.

66.8, Just Under 80, or 88. Three Feeds, One Bank of Japan Meeting.

Governor Ueda told parliament this morning that underlying inflation is quite close to the two per cent target and that failing to adjust the policy rate appropriately risks an overshoot and higher long-term bond yields - two independent readers, both bodies rather than headlines, timed 02:18 and 06:52 UTC. Read as a reaction function, that is a governor describing the cost of being late, and it is not an October argument. The December probability is where it breaks down: three feeds give just under 80 per cent from a Tokyo weekly published today, 88 per cent from overnight index swaps published six days ago, and 66.8 per cent at the December meeting with 58.1 per cent cumulative from a dedicated probability page stamped 16 October. The ends are 21.2 points apart, and 29.9 on the nearest like-for-like comparison. One of the three prices no October hike and a 13.1 per cent cut, carries the policy rate as 1.25, 0.50 and 1.04 per cent in different sections, reports its December move as plus 16.7 basis points - which is simply 66.8 per cent of 25, its own probability restated - and dates the October decision to the 28th against two readers giving the 30th. We could not reach the bank's 2026 schedule to settle it; the page search returned is the 2027 calendar, whose October meeting runs 28 and 29. Dollar-yen spent the day inside 40 pips through all of it.

The Low Is Unanimous at 157.55. The Close Is Published Two Ways, Twenty-Five Pips Apart.

Dollar-yen traded 158.35 to 157.55 on 15 October.

Four publishers give that low to the pip. The close is published three ways: 158.00 at a four-values table, 158.24 and 158.25 at two prose wraps from the same house forty-two minutes apart. The 158.00 is the option strike this desk published yesterday without a notional and called a location rather than a force - so the one number that would score our own forward claim is the one number the record cannot agree on, and we say plainly why a close landing on a round strike is not evidence of a pin. Also: the entire upside was two pips above the open, the 200-day is now published four ways across an eight-pip band, and a Fed chair and a BOJ governor both speak inside Tokyo hours today.

He Spoke at 06:35. The Pair Moved 28 Pips.

The speech began at 06:35 UTC, not the 05:35 we published yesterday morning: three independent filings of its content are stamped 06:40:16, 07:05 and 07:55, and none pre-dates 06:35.

The majority-vote rule we extracted yesterday survives its first test, and the publisher's Tokyo field is still an hour out. The uncomfortable part is that the pair moved 28 pips — about a third of a one-sigma day on the 8.61 vol we published Monday — around an event we wrote about three times. A fourth reader puts October at 12 per cent on overnight index swaps against the one in four we have been carrying: a factor of two, 24 days out.

Tokyo Opens Eleven Pips From Friday's Close. Three Feeds Disagree About Whether Anything Was Repriced.

Dollar-yen opens the Tokyo week in the 157.80s, about eleven pips from Friday's close, after a 29,000 payrolls print missed all seven consensus values this desk collected — the closest by 31,000.

The pair fell 65 pips and erased all of it as the ten-year round-tripped from 5.22 to 5.1549 and back to 5.296. Three feeds now publish three different October Fed probabilities: 77 per cent priced for a hold, ‘the 20 per cent range’, and a fall from 28 to below 13. The 91-pip implied move we published was delivered — 96 pips on the narrow reading of Friday's range, 127 on the wide one. And the option-vol curve finally has a second reader, agreeing to 0.025 of a vol point.

The Bank of Japan Hiked to a 31-Year High and the Yen Fell 190 Pips

USD/JPY went from 155.87 to at least 157.33 on the morning the Bank of Japan hiked to a 31-year high, with EUR/JPY through 180 and GBP/JPY at 210.26.

The hike was priced; the two dissenting votes were not. Plus: the expiry board we said this morning did not exist was published 29 minutes before we looked, and its biggest strike — $5.5bn at 155.00 — is now stranded 200 pips away.

Seven to Two, and Four of Nine Dissented From Something

The Bank of Japan went to 1.25% by seven votes to two — and two members who voted for the hike separately objected that the Bank's price outlook is too low.

Four of nine dissented from something, in opposite directions, on the morning core CPI fell to 1.7%. None of that is a field on your calendar.