Berita FX

The $1.1bn at 159.00 Sits 40 Pips Above Today's High, and Above Every Order We Can See

The board for today's New York cut carries $1.1bn at 159.00, 48.06 per cent of the dollar-yen total, with nothing above it.

Dollar-yen made 158.603 in the Asian morning, fell to 158.028 after the record twenty-year auction, and was churning at 158.05 in early London - so the strike is 39.7 pips above the session high and the day has happened inside 57.5 pips. Three things moved against it. The publisher that headlined 159 as possible at 07:34 JST published a 157.800-159.200 forecast range at 08:14 and a 157.600-158.700 range at 16:21: the top came down 50 pips and now sits 30 pips below the strike. One retail order book at 17:00 JST has its highest sell order at 158.550, 45 pips below the largest notional expiring today, and nothing at 159 at all. And the cut minute collides with a US release: two readers put September pending home sales at 14:00 UTC and their consensus is 70 basis points apart, at zero and minus 0.7 per cent. The 21 October expiry board is not where this morning's correction said it would be - checked 223 minutes after the hypothesised publication hour, the dated URL returned nothing and a domain-restricted search finds the 13th, 16th and 20th boards but no 21st. The one-day lead is real for the instance we read twice and is not a cadence you can schedule against. We also said the auction moved 15 pips; a later reader attributes 57.5 to it, and the difference is the window, not the number.

We Derived the Unknown to 400 Million. Both Numbers We Called Known Moved Four Billion.

August printed minus 105.6 billion dollars against a minus 102.0 consensus, and the three numbers we published eleven hours ago score badly in a specific way: the services surplus we derived as a residual and read nowhere was right to 400 million at 31.0, while the goods figure we called pre-announced came in 4.0 billion away and the prior we quoted moved 4.2 — ten and ten and a half times our own error. The whole miss sits in imports, 6.67 times the export error. And we will not call the four billion a revision: the release's own basis adjustment is larger than the gap.

The Release Printed at 14:30. Nine Hours Later the Only Place the Number Exists Is the Dallas Fed's Own Page.

The Dallas Fed printed 9.8 against a prior of 11.6 at 14:30 UTC — and six of the seven sub-indices underneath it rose, two by double digits.

Two calendars never carried the release and the one that had the time right still shows the actual as n/a. Yesterday's 4.5-billion-euro EUR/USD strike at 1.1400 was never traded. And the RBA at 04:30 is decided on the level and unsettled on the vote.

58.7 and 57.0. Both Splits Died — and the Previous Column Is Two Different Numbers.

US flash services printed 58.7 and manufacturing 57.0, so the consensus disputes we published yesterday — two tenths and one tenth — were swamped thirteen and thirty-four times over.

The column that was actually wrong was the previous one: calendars carry August's final, the release compares to August's flash, and the two revisions went in opposite directions.

Four American Numbers Printed on Friday. All Four Missed, and Two Had the Sign Wrong.

Industrial production +0.3% expected, 0.0% printed.

Capacity utilisation 76.4% expected, 76.3% printed. Manufacturing output +0.3% expected, −0.3% printed. The leading index +0.1% expected, −0.1% printed. Both issuers settle their own numbers in one fetch, so this is a clean read on what a consensus is worth — and every yen-relevant release this week lands while Tokyo is shut.

Tokyo Opens Into a Decision It Cannot Price, and the Hundred-Pip Round Trip Was All American

USD/JPY made 156.32 in Tokyo, traded down to 155.32 on American data and closed New York at 156.10.

The five US releases we published that we could not price are now in — and the one that landed on the option cut was the one where the consensus had the sign wrong. Plus: the ten-year came back below 5% and the yen did not follow it.

Retail Sales at 12:30: Four Readings, Twenty Basis Points, and a Seventy-Point Miss Last Month

Four readings for one US retail sales consensus, spanning twenty basis points – and two of them sit on the same page under different column headings.

Last month the same release missed its consensus by seventy.