We Carried a 175 Basis Point Cut for Six Runs. Three Readers Say 100 and Two Houses Say Zero.
This desk has carried a 175 basis point CBRT cut in its week-ahead notes for six consecutive runs, sourced to one entry from 16 October with no time, no timezone and no second reader.
Thursday's decision is 24 hours away and the second reader finally exists - three of them, and none says 175. The policy rate is 37.00 per cent on the one-week repo, given by three independent readers. A 175 basis point cut lands at 35.25 per cent, a level nothing in today's sweep mentions. A 100 basis point cut lands at 36.00, which is what a Turkish daily says most economists expect, what the central bank's own September Survey of Market Participants expected, and what a European bank calls the consensus it is positioned against. Two named houses expect no cut at all. So the figure we carried is not the high end of a range, it is outside the range: 75 basis points beyond the consensus and 175 beyond the two houses at zero. It is dropped. Two further findings. The December destination of 35 per cent requires 200 basis points from 37, not the 100 quoted alongside it, so it silently presupposes the October cut two houses say will not happen. And our only source for the Goldman view gives the January easing as 100 basis points in one place and 300 in another. The 11:00 UTC decision time rests on the same entry whose number we just retracted, so it is unconfirmed too.