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Tag: CFTC Hapus filter

Selasa, 13 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY

Friday's Positioning Report Is Measured at Last Night's Close. Last Night's Close Contains None of the Day.

The CFTC measures positions at the Tuesday close and publishes on Friday.

Tuesday was 13 October - a day that ran 158.65 to 157.83, eighty-two pips with a fifty-four-pip reversal inside it, and closed at 158.33, fifty pips above its own low. Friday's 19:30 UTC report will record the yen market at the one instant when almost nothing that happened was still visible. The ten-year did the same: read at 5.20, 5.1937 and about 5.19 at midday with three different stated changes, it closed at 5.2168 - 1.68 to 2.68 basis points above all three, and 0.32 of a basis point below the last value the Federal Reserve actually measured, on 8 October. The issuer still has no observation for 9, 12 or 13 October. Plus why Friday settles nothing about the four-way yen split, and a fifth reader with the wrong month and the opposite sign.

Senin, 12 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY

The Yen Positioning Spread Grew 59,862 Contracts Over a Closed Weekend. We Read One More Row.

We published a 92,838-contract yen positioning spread on Friday.

It is now 152,700 - and nothing traded, because the futures market was shut all weekend. The difference is one more row: dealers, net short 84,905 contracts on the same Tuesday, on the same page as the two figures we used. Four values for one market on one day, 1.909 trillion yen apart, and the two reporting breakdowns do not sum - adding a true figure moved the discrepancy from 19,573 contracts to 104,478. Plus why the dealer row is mostly the mirror of the asset-manager row, and why three runs of looking have still not found a second reader.

Kamis, 08 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY

One Tuesday, Four Yen Positions, 72,249 Contracts Apart

We carried a yen net long of 55,440 contracts for nine days as though it were the position.

Two readers of the same report for the same Tuesday put leveraged funds net short 14,161 and net short 16,809; one of them puts asset managers net long 51,961 in the same sentence. Four numbers, one Tuesday, 72,249 contracts apart - about 903 billion yen, or 5.7 billion dollars at this morning's 158.18 - and ours is the only one with no category written next to it. The two readers agree to 303 contracts on how much the position moved and disagree by 2,648 on where it is.

Selasa, 06 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY USDJPY

Our 55,400 Is Right. At the Agency It Is Two Desks Facing Opposite Ways.

Five runs of quoting a 55,400 net long, and at the agency itself it is 55,440 — non-commercial longs of 176,266 against 120,826 short, with the prior week's 71,982 matching the vendor's 72.0 thousand.

But the same release cuts the identical 360,720 of open interest a second way, and asset managers are net long 51,634 while leveraged funds are net short 14,161. Last week they moved in opposite directions, and the leveraged-funds change alone was 1.30 times the headline move. The net fall was 96.8 per cent long liquidation: 16,008 longs closed against 534 shorts opened. And it was measured on 29 September, three days before the payrolls print.

Kamis, 01 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY USDJPY

Tomorrow's Positioning Number Is Three Days Old. Its Median Weekly Change Is 95,000 Contracts.

The Commitments of Traders report due tomorrow at 19:30 UTC is measured at Tuesday's close — about seventy-three hours earlier.

But the staleness is the smaller problem. We printed the last eight releases: the net position's median week-on-week change is 95,000 contracts against an eight-week range of 284,000, with three sign flips in eight transitions. A three-day lag only matters if the quantity is stable, and this one is not. Meanwhile the dollar index took out its June year high at 101.848 and two published dollar-yen level calls were broken before the cut.

Rabu, 30 September 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY

Something Bought 108 Pips of Yen This Morning. Nothing You Can Read Today Will Tell You Who.

Dollar-yen traded 156.37 to 157.45 today, a hundred and eight pips, most of it in the Tokyo morning and most of it handed back.

Three positioning measurements are available: the Ministry's, monthly and closed on 28 September, with the daily detail five weeks out; the CFTC's, as of Tuesday 29 September and released Friday at 19:30 UTC in a market that is not spot; and one broker's retail book, fresh but in percentages of itself. None of them covers this morning. And the 157.00 strike called a pin at 05:06 has been crossed in both directions.

Minggu, 27 September 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY USDJPY

The Yen Long Was Cut 40% in a Week — and 94% of the Cut Was Longs Leaving

Speculators cut their net long in the yen by 48,377 contracts in the week to 22 September, from 120,359 to 71,982 — a 40.2% reduction.

But 45,677 of those contracts were longs leaving and only 2,700 were shorts arriving. Two vendors read it exactly right for once. And the snapshot predates Friday's 202-pip move by three days.

Senin, 21 September 2026 · 1 catatan

JPY

The Yen Long Is Measured on Tuesdays. Ours Was Ten Times Too Big.

Speculators are net long 120,359 yen contracts at the 88th percentile — measured at the Tuesday close on 15 September, three days before the Bank of Japan hiked and checked rates.

And two readers put the previous week at 10,796 contracts, against the 103,023 we published on 14 September. Plus: spot at 157.06 sitting on a 157.00 expiry strike whose size we still cannot read.

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