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Rabu, 30 September 2026 · 1 catatan

Japan industrial production

The Month-on-Month Is Agreed. The Year-on-Year Has Two Values 5.6 Points Apart.

Japan's August industrial production is agreed at −1.7% month-on-month by four publishers.

Two of them give the year-on-year as +3.4% and two give it as −2.2% — 5.6 points apart, opposite signs, same release. The consensus has three values. Australia's 4.0% CPI is a miss against the figure we published and a bullseye at FXStreet, and the Aussie sold off anyway. And the retail sales prior was revised, one day after we wrote the rule.

Selasa, 29 September 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY EURUSD

Seventy-Four Pips of an Implied 104. The Prior Under Yesterday's Finding Was Revised Away.

Dollar-yen made 74 pips of an implied 104, and Tokyo produced half of it — the second session running in which Asian hours out-traded European ones.

EUR/USD never came within 26 pips of the 4.9-billion-euro strike, so that test closes negative too. And the sign disagreement we published yesterday dissolves: the Conference Board revised August down to 88.6, and both forecasts were on the same side after all.

Tanggapi reaksinya, bukan judulnya
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