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Selasa, 27 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY JPY

The Fixing We Spent Three Runs Asking For Printed at 157.64. So Did Monday's High.

Mitsubishi UFJ published its Tokyo fixing for dollar-yen at 157.64 at 10:06 Japan time, 01:06 UTC.

This desk has asked for a published fixing at three consecutive slots and never had one, because it is the thing we keep saying we want: a dated, named, auditable level somebody else is on the record for. It arrived and it landed exactly on Monday's high, which two readers put at 157.64. That is a coincidence and we are not building a mechanism on it. What followed is more useful. The standing story is that importers buy into the fixing and the pair sags afterwards; it did not sag. One publisher at 10:00 Japan time had the high at 157.67 and called the bid fixing-related; a second at 12:00 gives 157.76 and says it came after the fixing. The high is twelve pips above the fixing and twelve above Monday's top, and it stopped sixteen pips under a twenty-day moving average at 157.92 that one publisher named in advance, twenty-four pips under a 158.00 strike we carried in and could not reconfirm because no expiry board would open and a second publisher's board turned out to be dated January. The session is thirty-four pips, 157.42 to 157.76, twenty-eight per cent of its own forecast range. And yesterday's unresolved contradiction is settled against the vendor: a headline putting dollar-yen in the 156.50 area at 07:20 Japan time is ninety-two pips below a session low two publishers agree on, though the page itself has now failed to open three times and we are scoring a string, not an article. Japan's services producer price index printed 3.7 per cent in line at 23:50 UTC, with August revised.

Jumat, 23 Oktober 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY

156.08 Against a Support at 156.06. The Test Had Already Happened When We Called It Untested.

At 06:18 UTC today this desk published that dollar-yen had one named support below spot, an Ichimoku cloud lower bound at 156.06, and that it had not been tested because Tokyo's low was 156.40 - a comfortable 34.0 pips above it. The test had already happened. Four publishers put the session low at 156.08, 2.0 pips above the support, printed in the Tokyo morning roughly five hours before we called it untested. The 156.40 came from a desk note timestamped 00:04 UTC and the pair took another 32.0 pips off the low before 01:00. Our published distance was 17.0 times the real one. The level held by two pips and the pair recovered 108.0 pips to a London high of 157.16; the 72.0-pip void below 156.06 is still a claim about a break that has not happened. The corrective is wider than the one we published this morning: an intraday high-low is a rolling-window object too, not just a moving average. The 21-day moved 14.0 pips in a day, 158.02 to 157.88, and a fifth value for the 200-day arrived at 158.55, so we no longer think our 7.0-pip band means what we published. Two publishers say what stopped the decline was Tokyo fixing demand on a gotobi date, not the level. Spot 156.64, 16.0 pips under the 156.80 that held from mid-Tokyo.

Minggu, 27 September 2026 · 1 catatan

USDJPY

Trump Withdrew Friday's Reason on Saturday. Tokyo Kept Friday's Price.

Iran offered to reopen Hormuz on Friday, crude fell and dollar-yen travelled 202 pips to 156.93.

Trump rejected the plan on Saturday. Brent has recovered 79.8% of Friday's fall on the Monday open; dollar-yen has recovered 23%. Either verbal intervention did the work, or Tokyo has not repriced yet.

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