We Derived 5.09. The Issuer Says 5.19. The Chair Would Not Give a Number at All.
Yesterday we reconstructed the American ten-year at 5.09 from a vendor's prose - the 5.30 area, less a move described as 21 basis points in one place and 20 in another.
The issuer has now published 14 October at 5.19. We were ten basis points low, and the error was in the starting point: the actual fall from 13 October was two basis points, not twelve. The 15 October observation is still missing and today is its stated release date, while two vendor quotes put that session at 5.035 and 5.06, thirteen to sixteen basis points below the last official figure. Meanwhile the Fed chair, in what one reader calls his last public remarks before the blackout, named October and December as decision points and gave no rate, no probability, no path and no threshold - the tenth official in a fortnight, and the strongest negative yet. The venue was Bangkok, not Singapore, and the publisher that said Singapore is the one that corrected it.