Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
The Base Effect Was Right to a Hundredth of a Point. What Was Left Over Was Seven Times Too Small.
Tokyo core CPI printed 2.7 per cent against a 2.3 consensus, and the base-effect decomposition this desk published eleven minutes before the release was right to a hundredth of a point on the subsidies and wrong by a factor of seven on everything else: 0.36 points of residual against the 0.05 we implied. Core-core rose a full point to 3.0, which no childcare waiver can explain. The beat bought sixteen pips. And today's payrolls forecasters are either 70,000 or 145,000 apart depending which vendor prints the range, against the eight-thousand gap we argued about for ten runs.
Our 2002-Versus-2007 Argument Was About Two Different Days. The Ten-Year Went Through Both.
The ten-year made 5.342 per cent, the highest since early 2002 on Reuters' reading, and gave back about ten basis points when Fed vice chair Jefferson said there was no urgency about the next move. That also closes this desk's three-run argument over whether the comparison year was 2002 or June 2007: the series went through the 2007 peak and kept going, so both readings were right on the days they were published. Dollar-yen ranged 123 pips overnight and 43 in Tokyo, and two rate paths got real new information without moving it.