Noticias FX

Two Pips Through the Floor at the Tokyo Close. Seventy-Eight More by the London Afternoon.

At 06:16 UTC this desk published a 157.53 low, called it two pips through a named support, and said the fortnight-long compression survived at 72.0 pips - day fourteen under a yen.

It named 157.20 as the falsifier. By the London afternoon the low was 156.75: 45.0 pips below the falsifier, 78.0 below the low we published, and a 150.0-pip day high to low. Day fourteen is the last day of the sequence. Tokyo ran 72.0 pips; Europe took 78.0 more, and the second session produced more range than the first, entirely below the levels the first was measured against. Today is 2.19 times the 68.4-pip mean of the three preceding days we measured ourselves, and 136.4 per cent of the 110.0-pip forecast band one publisher issued overnight. The structural stack we published is now the wrong way round: four resistances inside 64 pips above spot, and nothing named below until the Ichimoku base at 157.19, taken out 44 pips above the low. Every yen cross went - euro-yen 122 pips below its Tokyo low and under 176.00 for the first time since 5 November, sterling-yen through 210.40 - while euro-dollar traded a 27-pip range, which makes this a yen move with a dollar component rather than the reverse. The French leg we have carried unread for nine runs arrived as a yen bid. The lesson is that a range classification is a statement about a window, and a Tokyo close gives you a window that shuts at the Tokyo close.

158.51 Went at 09:54 UTC — in London, Not Tokyo, with Both Cash Markets Shut

The 158.51 high this desk has watched since 7 October went at 09:54 UTC, and it went in London — Tokyo was shut for Sports Day, the US Treasury cash market was shut for Columbus Day, and Canada was shut.

Dollar-yen printed 158.61, twenty-one pips above where the Asian session stopped and ten above the mark, on a day whose stated driver is crude oil that four publishers price across a five-dollar band. With the bond market closed there is no yield print to confirm the break. Also: euro-dollar at a 1.1185 day low, and the French ten-year spread computes to 139.8 basis points against a 140.6 threshold that did not go.

The Number That Would Settle It Is Three Numbers, Three Pips Apart

The two-hundred-day moving average was the one number that would settle yesterday's four-way ambiguity about a one-pip overshoot.

Three publishers give it as 158.50, 158.52 and 158.53, and Tokyo's 158.51 high fell in the gap and equals none of them. Worse for us: our own published resistance level is 158.50, identical to MUFG's reading, so our level holding and the average holding are the same sentence written twice. London then took the pair to 157.85, a 66-pip day against Tokyo's 41 - on French bonds, not on Japan.

155.24, Then Straight Back. The Yen Is Trading the Ten-Year — and Treasury Sells 20-Year Paper Into It at 17:00.

London ran USD/JPY through 155.00 to 155.24 on a ten-year at 5.0390% and handed all of it back when the yield gave up three basis points — the second failure at that figure in fourteen hours, and no link in either chain was Japanese. The ten-year went from "highest since October 2023" to "highest since July 2007" across about three basis points. Treasury sells 20-year paper into it at 17:00 UTC, six securities settle today, and the 20-year settles Friday on Bank of Japan morning.

The Only 12:30 Print Today Is Canadian, and Two Vendors Are 40 Basis Points Apart on It

The pre-US window fires at 12:30 UTC today with no American number in it.

One vendor has the Canadian consensus at +0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y; another at −0.1% and 2.0%. Statistics Canada's own July release says 3.0% — and 2.0% is the Bank of Canada median core, sitting in the wrong field. Second labelling failure from the same publisher in four sessions. Meanwhile London ran USD/JPY to 154.74 with nothing scheduled at all.