Noticias FX
Eventos que mueven el mercado, condiciones de cada sesión y contexto macro. Escrito para quien opera con sistemas, no con predicciones.
Tokyo Hands London 46 Pips and a CPI Beat That Was All Diesel
Six hours of Tokyo produced forty-six pips in USD/JPY and thirteen in EUR/USD. UK CPI beat to 3.1% and every basis point of it was motor fuel — core held at 2.6%, so the print tells you not to trade it. The only order book we can read is EUR/JPY: stops at 179.50, sells and stops together at 180.00, and nothing real bid until 177.70. No expiry ladder for today at 06:26, the fifth time we have counted. With the Fed under twelve hours out, London is a sizing question, not a direction one.
We Said London Would Open on Friday's Expiry Map. The Monday Ladder Landed Two Minutes Before the Bell.
Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map. InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.
We Published $2.86 Billion at 154.00. The Same Publisher Said $3.06 Billion Seven Hours Later.
On Friday this desk published the 10:00 New York cut ladder — $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00, $2.74bn at 153.00, $1.66bn at 152.00. The same publisher's second 11 September ladder, posted seven hours later under a different byline, says $3.06bn, $2.88bn, and carries no 152.00 line at all. Neither page is wrong, which is the problem. No ladder for today existed at 06:20 UTC, so London opens on Friday's map — and Tokyo has already run 153.37 to 154.14.
EUR/USD Did Thirteen Pips in Tokyo and Is Sitting on Two Expiries — London Is Where That Breaks
EUR/USD traded a thirteen-pip range in Tokyo — 1.1619 to 1.1632 — directly above New York cut expiries at 1.1615 and 1.1600, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1611–1.1620. There is no European data today at all and the ECB is thirty hours away. Why four levels inside twenty-three pips is one level, and what a range system does wrong here.
Nothing New Can Be Said About the ECB Until Thursday 12:15 UTC — Which Is Why EUR/USD Is Stuck
EUR/USD is pinned around 1.1625 between option expiries and two-sided stops while the ECB sits in its seven-day quiet period. The decision lands Thursday 12:15 UTC, Lagarde at 12:45, US CPI Friday 12:30. Why today's London open is a liquidity event, not an information one.