FX News
Market-moving events, session conditions, and macro context — written for traders who run systems, not predictions.
We Closed the Core CPI Dispute at +0.2%. It Printed +0.3%. Neither Vendor Had the Number.
On Friday this desk declared a consensus dispute closed at +0.2% core month on month. The BLS published +0.3%. The outlier we rejected said +0.4%, so the print landed exactly between the two — and the house forecast we quoted at +0.19% was eleven basis points low. Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan printed 47.8 against a 51.0 consensus with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. What a desk owes you after a call like that.
A 70% Priced Hike, a 12:30 Print About August, and Brent Down 4.4% Since This Morning
The Fed is about 70% priced for next week, the BOJ fully priced for 17–18 September, and the ECB is being priced for October. Today's 12:30 print measures August — while Brent has fallen from $108.50 at 06:00 UTC to $103.76 at 11:45, two vendors agreeing, with no sourceable reason. Why the highest-probability CPI outcome resolves nothing.
$2.86 Billion Expires at USD/JPY 154.00 and Spot Is at 154.08 — with CPI Ninety Minutes Before the Cut
The full 10:00 New York cut expiry ladder, with spot against it: $2.86bn at USD/JPY 154.00 with the pair trading 154.08, and EUR1.44bn at EUR/USD 1.1575 thirty pips below spot. Tokyo traded 53 pips and 12 pips; Britain doubled its GDP consensus for about four. Plus the oil audit we owed you — our own four published Brent prices in 72 hours, and two vendors $3 apart this morning.
The Yen Rally Ended on Day Six — and Tokyo's Own Producer Prices Print at 23:50 UTC
Five sessions of yen buying into a wall of dollar-positive news, then a squeeze on the sixth: USD/JPY traded 153.85–154.67 and Gaitame's morning range is 153.600–155.300. Japan's own producer prices land at 23:50 UTC expected at 7.4% year on year — two full points hotter than the American PPI that moved the dollar. Why a five-day trend ending on day six is the exact shape that costs money.
Six Ships a Day or Forty? The Hormuz Number Nobody Can Measure Prices the 30-Year at 17:00 UTC
Kpler counts five or six vessels a day through the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury Secretary says at least ten million barrels are moving and the White House says forty ships a night. Al Jazeera's own two pieces, citing the same tracker one week apart, give pre-war baselines of 15 and 17 million barrels a day. Transits fell 95%; volumes fell about half. Today's only audited oil number is US inventories at 16:00 — and the 30-year reopens at 17:00.
Your Oil Inventory Window Is on the Wrong Day This Week — and the Wrong Hour
Labor Day moved the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report to Thursday 10 September at 16:00 UTC — a different day and a different hour from its usual 14:30 UTC Wednesday slot. API runs tonight at 20:30 UTC. Natural gas storage stays at Thursday 14:30. Two published calendars and our own week-ahead table had it wrong. Why a shifted window costs more than a missing one.
Tokyo Printed the Yen's Best Level and New York Took It Back — Brent at $99 Is Why
USD/JPY printed 152.89 in Tokyo hours — the yen's strongest since February — then closed New York in the mid-153s after a 154.42 high. What reversed it was not Japanese: Brent hit $99 on strikes against Saudi energy facilities, and Japan sourced 95.9% of its crude from the Middle East in FY2024. A sizing problem for the Tokyo session.