外汇资讯

The Option Market Priced a Sixty-One-Pip Day. Tokyo Traded Forty, and There Is Still No Expiry Ladder.

One vendor put one-week dollar-yen implied volatility at 6.17 per cent this morning.

On our conventions that is about 61 pips of one-day standard deviation and 135 over the week - and the entire Tokyo session traded 40 pips, two-thirds of one sigma. The dollar index ran 102.20 to 102.075 and back to 102.238, finishing just above a ten-day line the publisher gives as 102.161 and does not label. 159.04 now has a third reader naming it, 69 pips away, 1.12 sigma. Fifth straight slot with no expiry ladder for the 14:00 cut, and two searches returned nineteen results with not one from 2026. Plus a correction: the issuer has published 9 October at 5.24 per cent, so Monday night was not a phantom close, and our 0.32-basis-point figure should have been 2.32.

The One-Week Vol We Published at 10.00 Is 8.61. The Curve Is No Longer Inverted.

One-week dollar-yen implied volatility has fallen from the 10.00 per cent we published on Friday to 8.61 — a 1.39-point collapse, 7.3 times the one-month’s fall and 13.2 times the back end’s.

The curve is no longer inverted: the one-week is now the lowest point on it and the one-month, at 9.26, is the highest, which puts the market’s remaining worry between one week and one month out, where CPI, the FOMC, the Bank of Japan and the midterms all sit. At 8.61 a one-sigma day is 86 pips and Tokyo delivered 57. We also close the window hypothesis we labelled a guess on Saturday: one publisher carries both the full-day 158.22 high and the New York-session 157.91, on two different pages.

The Option Market Says Ninety-One Pips Today. Tokyo's Whole Range Was Forty-Three.

One-month dollar-yen implied volatility rose from 8.86 to 9.16 per cent overnight while the three-month moved six hundredths — the front end repriced five times as far as the tenor behind it, and only the tenor containing payrolls, the Fed and the BOJ. At 9.16 the one-standard-deviation day is 91 pips, 2.12 times the whole of yesterday's Tokyo range. The 25-delta yen-call premium fell at all four tenors at the same time. And the 90,000 consensus everyone is sizing against is 2.9 times the Bureau's own trailing twelve-month average of 31,000, with a four-month mean absolute error of 89,750 — fifty jobs from the figure we published yesterday.

135 Pips Before the Window Opens. Now Size the 12:30 Print.

Dollar-yen has spent 135 pips before the 12:30 US data block opens, and is 40 pips below the bottom of a range published overnight.

The consensus you would size against is ten basis points wide; this series' own three-month mean miss is 83. And one widely read Friday preview has every release an hour early — the whole page is rendering EST in September.

Three Splits Resolved. Only the One-Tenth Gap Changed Anything.

Euro area manufacturing printed 52.7 — a beat on one feed, exactly in line on a second, and a six-tenths miss against the house forecast we refused to publish as a consensus.

Three of our four splits resolved; the one-tenth gap was the only one that mattered.

We Said London Would Open on Friday's Expiry Map. The Monday Ladder Landed Two Minutes Before the Bell.

Yesterday this desk said no expiry ladder existed at 06:20 UTC and concluded London would open on Friday's map.

InvestingLive published the Monday ladder at 06:58:44 — two minutes before the bell. The observation was right and the inference was wrong. Four publication times now measured: 22:19 the night before, 05:01, 06:58:44, and nothing at all at 06:30 today. That is an eight-hour spread and no cadence at all. Plus: when the page does arrive, the notionals are inside an image. Size on the strike, not the notional.

EUR/USD Did Thirteen Pips in Tokyo and Is Sitting on Two Expiries — London Is Where That Breaks

EUR/USD traded a thirteen-pip range in Tokyo — 1.1619 to 1.1632 — directly above New York cut expiries at 1.1615 and 1.1600, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1611–1.1620.

There is no European data today at all and the ECB is thirty hours away. Why four levels inside twenty-three pips is one level, and what a range system does wrong here.

WTI Near $90 Is a Correlation Problem Before It Is an Oil Trade

WTI is holding near $90 on US–Iran escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

For an automated FX system the risk is not the oil price — it is that oil is now the shared input behind several positions you think are independent.