Daily Market Notes
Waller's 85 Per Cent Was the Market's Own Number — Three Weeks Before He Said It
We carried two December figures for four runs and called them a contradiction: our own about 70, and Governor Waller's about 85 for at least one increase by December. One multiplication dissolves it. The market's own two meeting probabilities compounded to 85.9 per cent on 18 September, 79.0 on 9 October and 74.9 by the weekend. The 85 is arithmetically exact for a market three weeks older than the sentence. And the October reading fell fifty-five points in eleven days while December went up, so the hike was not priced out - it was moved six weeks later.