Daily Market Notes
Four Vendors Are Two Tenths Apart on the ISM. An Average Month Moves It a Point.
Four vendors publish four consensus values for the 14:00 UTC ISM non-manufacturing index — 55.0, 55.0, 55.1 and 55.2 — a disagreement two tenths wide. This series has moved an average of 1.09 points a month across the eight published months of 2026, so the whole vendor spread is 0.18 of an average month and the expected fall from 55.4 is 0.37 of one. Only TD Securities, at 54.0, is forecasting something larger than the series’ own noise. Euro-area PPI already printed 8.2 per cent year on year against a 7.9 consensus while the issuing agency headlined the month-on-month figure that was exactly right.