Daily Market Notes
We Published a Prediction With a Ten-Minute Window. Nothing We Read Measures Ten Minutes.
Last night this desk published its first falsifiable prediction with a threshold and a deadline: no more than twenty pips in the ten minutes after Japan's 23:50 trade balance. We cannot mark it. Our sources publish hourly, the Tokyo morning spanned forty pips, and the answer sits in the twenty-to-forty band we cannot resolve. Six and a half hours on we still could not read what Japan printed. And the ONS spent twenty-one minutes this morning serving two pages that disagreed about whether UK CPI existed — one saying "not yet published", the other carrying 3.1%.