Daily Market Notes
The Consensus Was Two Tenths Apart. The Print Itself Has Two Values Three Points Apart.
We flagged a 0.2-point consensus gap on the Chicago PMI yesterday morning. The print has landed with two published values, 58.8 and 55.8, three points apart — fifteen times the gap we were arguing about. ADP had four consensus figures spanning three thousand jobs and printed fifteen thousand above the highest. Core PCE missed on all four fields in the same direction. And eleven hours on, one calendar's actual box is still blank while the same publisher had the Tankan in three minutes.