Daily Market Notes
Three Forecasters Agree on September's Core CPI and Disagree About Last September
Wednesday's US September CPI lands at 12:30 UTC and the consensus is established here before the print rather than reconstructed after it. The headline is 3.6 or 3.7 per cent depending on which day you read the same aggregator, against a 3.4 prior. Core is read at 2.39, 2.4 and 2.5 against a 2.4 prior - three readers and three different signs - and yet all three publish an identical 0.2 core month-on-month. Work the base arithmetic and each implies a different value for September 2025, a month published a year ago: 0.21, 0.20 and 0.10. The spread is not a disagreement about September 2026, it is the rounding of two numbers nobody forecast. Score the monthly fields.