22 of 24 Were Right. All Three Rates Moved 100 Basis Points, and Our Field Warning Did Not Fire.
At 06:15 UTC this desk published that 22 of 24 surveyed economists expected a 100 basis point cut from Turkey, against a bank that had held at 37.00 per cent for five consecutive meetings - 91.67 per cent of forecasters against a realised no-change rate of five of five. The decision landed at 11:00 and the policy rate is 36.00, exactly as the 91.67 per cent said. We also pre-registered a warning that Turkey sets three rates and that a corridor-only move would read as no change on a single-field feed. All three moved in lockstep: one-week repo 37.00 to 36.00, overnight lending 40.00 to 39.00, overnight borrowing 35.50 to 34.50, leaving the corridor exactly where it was at 300 basis points above and 150 below. So every headline-rate feed reports this correctly and there is no field problem - the opposite of Jakarta on Tuesday, where 25 basis points landed on an instrument neither reader named. The finding that costs us the argument: field risk is a property of the institution, not of the event. Turkey has now shifted the whole corridor in parallel twice, in January and today. The right question is not how many rates a bank sets but whether its instruments moved together last time. And the base-rate argument lost: a five-observation hold count whose sample sits entirely before a 178 basis point disinflation step cannot see a regime boundary, and the three monthly prints we published this morning were the better evidence. The issuer's own release was not reachable; its MPC page served the July hold instead.