外汇资讯

Sixty-Nine Billion for a Thirteenth Straight Auction, 49 Hours Before the Fed. The Size Was Never the Variable.

The Treasury sells sixty-nine billion dollars of two-year notes at 17:00 UTC today, 49 hours before an FOMC decision it is expected not to make.

That is the thirteenth consecutive two-year auction at exactly sixty-nine billion, so the size is not the variable - the clearing yield is the only free field in the row. The structural point a risk schedule usually misses: the Treasury announced four coupon securities on 22 October and they do not share an auction date, they share a settlement date. The two-year today, the five-year tomorrow, the two-year floating-rate note on FOMC day and the seven-year on Thursday all settle 2 November, which is the day after the United States leaves daylight time and the day before the midterms. Two price before the Committee speaks and one after. September's two-year cleared at 4.787 per cent with a tail of plus 0.2 basis points, so the implied when-issued is 4.785 - our subtraction, not anybody's published figure - and the tail field is blank for nine of the twelve prior auctions, so there is no distribution to size off. The note comes to auction roughly ten basis points below September's clear, 10.7 on one reader's 4.68 and 9.7 on another's 4.69. The French pre-registration from Sunday night resolves: the ten-year is 4.973, back under five per cent, seven and a half basis points below Friday. But one publisher calls the spread to Germany "above 155 basis points" where a dated series says 174.6 and 171.8, and the same page carries two German ten-year yields, 3.350 and 3.3774, which is a spread of 162.3 or 159.6 depending on which half of one page you read.

We Subtracted 22 Billion Dollars. It Is Published — and So Is a December Number Fifteen Points Above Ours.

We put 22 billion dollars in print four days ago as our own subtraction from a 119-billion-dollar three-day total, with today as the deadline to source it or drop it.

Two publishers give today's 17:00 thirty-year reopening as 22 billion dollars. The Treasury's own schedule publishes the reopening flag that determines the size and states that it carries no amounts. September's reopening stopped through the when-issued by 2.7 basis points with primary dealers taking 2.2 per cent against an 11.5 per cent average. And Governor Waller, in Istanbul this morning, put at-least-one-hike-by-December at about 85 per cent against the 70 in our file.

The Auction Cleared 0.2 Basis Points Wide. The Ministry Will Only Tell You in Japanese.

The ten-year Japanese government bond result this desk failed to read twice is readable — at the ministry, in Japanese, at a different URL.

The English page 404'd three times across seventeen hours. Issue 384 cleared at 99.99 for 3.101 per cent with a 0.2 basis point spread to the lowest accepted bid and 71.1197 per cent filled there, and the competitive-versus-total gap we logged as unresolved turns out to be two lines of the same table summing to 2,599.45 billion yen. In America the ten-year gave back 2.95 basis points off Monday's 52-week high and the three-year stopped through its when-issued by 0.2.

Eleven Sessions, Not Nine — and It Reopened on the Day the 30-Year Was Auctioned

Yesterday we said the 20s/30s inversion was nine sessions old and that we could not read the 2–11 September window.

We can now. The gap first appeared on 4 September, closed on the 9th, and reopened on 10 September — the day the 30-year was auctioned. Eleven consecutive sessions, widening to 6bp. The auction-concession explanation does not survive 15 September.

The 20s/30s Inversion Is Nine Sessions Old, Not Three — and It Predates the BOJ

On 23 September we published that the 20-year had closed above the 30-year on each of the last three business days, since the BOJ moved.

The Treasury's own table has it inverted on every session from 14 September to 24 September, widening to 6 basis points. The number survived; the sentence around it did not.

The 20-Year Cleared at 5.420%. The Tail Was Two Basis Points and the Foreign Bid Was the Lowest Ever.

The 15 September twenty-year bond auction cleared at 5.420% with a two-basis-point tail, a 2.57 bid-to-cover and the lowest indirect share in the auction's six-year life — and eighteen hours on, the calendar feed still shows an empty actual field.

Tuesday's 20-Year Auction Settles on Bank of Japan Day. Last Month's Tailed Half a Basis Point.

Treasury's own tentative schedule confirms the 20-year bond auction for Tuesday 15 September, settling Friday 18 September — Bank of Japan day.

Last month's $18bn went at 5.204% against a 5.199% when-issued, a half-basis-point tail with 62.93% indirects. Last week's 3-year, 10-year and 30-year all settle Tuesday, the day the FOMC convenes. None of it is on your FX calendar.

The 30-Year Stopped Through by 2.7bp and Dealers Took 2.2%. That Was Not a Buyers' Strike.

$22bn cleared at 5.308% against a 5.335% when-issued — a 2.7bp stop-through, bid-to-cover 2.61 against a 2.38 average, and primary dealers left with a record-low 2.2%.

Real money took 97.8% of a thirty-year issue. Yields are not rising because buyers vanished; they are rising because the clearing price of duration moved. Plus the ECB's own projections showing core inflation higher in 2027 than in 2026.

Treasury Sells 10-Year Paper at 17:00 UTC and Starts Buying the Long End Back the Same Day

London took the dollar index below 98.70 this morning and handed it all back by 10:49 UTC.

There is no 12:30 UTC release today. The dated event is the 10-year reopening at 17:00 UTC, against a 12 August stop of 4.683% and a cash 10-year at 4.81% — the eighth consecutive auction to clear higher, if it does. And Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks start the same day.