The Issuer Revised Four of Our Own Priors Inside a Day. And the ECB Tells You in Advance Which Speaker Leaves a Text.
On Thursday this desk published four figures as the Labor Department's own settled prior values for jobless claims, read off the issuer's own release.
Twenty-four hours later the issuer revised all four: initial claims for the week ending 31 October from 189,000 up to 191,000, the four-week average from 194,750 up to 195,250, continuing claims from 1,718,000 down to 1,717,000, and the insured four-week average from 1,709,500 down to 1,709,250. Two up and two down in one document, for the second consecutive week. An issuer is authoritative about its figure as of publication and not about that figure a week later. The cost is in the change field: the new print of 200,000 is a rise of 11,000 against our stored prior and 9,000 against the issuer's revised one, so a stale prior overstates the weekly change by 22.2 per cent of the issuer's own number, and nothing in the release flags it. One field is reported unchanged against an average revised upward by 500 in the same release. The buried figure nobody prints: the unadjusted series rose 28,870 where seasonal factors expected 19,663, an excess of 9,207 against a seasonally adjusted change of plus 9,000 — the headline is the seasonal miss to within 207. Overnight four Fed officials spoke, all hawkish, none naming a size or a date, and Hammack argued explicitly against a half point in December while Waller's 0.3 core CPI condition has already fired. We can source no December probability at all: four pages, no FedWatch figure, and the one number we found reaches us through a translation layer and contradicts our own arithmetic, so we publish the gap. The ten-year is 5.12 per cent on a wrap stamped 21:03 UTC while the free official daily series still shows 4.98 for 10 November — two days and 14 basis points behind. Dollar-yen's exact high was 160.049 and its low 159.299, closing an absence we printed in bold last night and scoring our own implied 159.30 to a tenth of a pip. And the ECB's own calendar prints, in advance, that Elderson at 06:50 UTC will leave no text while Schnabel at 07:20 will — the first time we have found that field before the event rather than after.