外汇资讯 | 1kPips

2026年10月21日星期三 · 1 篇

06:18 UTC UK CPI ONS

Three Readers Agreed on 3.4 Per Cent. It Printed 3.5, and the Ratio Now Has Zero in the Denominator.

Yesterday this desk published 70 basis points of vendor disagreement against 680 basis points of realised surprise and said one observation is not a rule.

Two more releases have landed. Britain's September CPI printed 3.5 per cent against a consensus three independent readers all put at 3.4, with no disagreement at all, so the surprise-to-dispersion ratio has zero in the denominator. Japan's September trade deficit printed 536,558 million yen against two consensus readings 79 billion apart, a ratio of 3.5 to 4.5. Three releases in 18 hours, three unrelated values, one of them undefined, and the release with zero dispersion still missed while the one with the widest dispersion missed by the most. The Office for National Statistics puts CPIH at 3.6, core at 2.8, services at 3.7 and RPI at 3.9, with transport contributing 0.94 percentage points, up from 0.69 in August, which is 62.5 per cent of the acceleration from one division. And the Bank of England's own September letter had already set a path of around 3.75 per cent for the fourth quarter, so a print that beat a unanimous vendor consensus is 0.25 points below the institution's own central figure. Japan's deficit is simultaneously a 355.6 billion yen miss against the Reuters poll and a 303.4 billion improvement on August. The ordered record-low check on the 66.0 pending home sales index came back empty: the issuer's own statistics page carries no series at all, so the claim stays unpublished.

2026年9月15日星期二 · 1 篇

23:17 UTC USDJPY

155.00 Held on the Third Attempt. At 23:50 Tokyo Finally Gets a Japanese Number.

USD/JPY has taken 155.00 three times in thirty-six hours.

The first two were handed straight back inside the session; the third stuck — New York closed 155.10, seventy-five sen up, on a 154.21–155.24 range, with the ten-year at a nineteen-year 5.0390% and the Dow down 399. Three sessions running, every link in the yen's chain has been American. At 23:50 UTC Japan finally supplies its own numbers — trade balance, exports, imports and core machinery orders in one minute — and on the evidence of the last three sessions Tokyo will not trade a single one of them. We are putting that in writing so it can be marked.