Daily Market Notes
The Base Effect Was Right to a Hundredth of a Point. What Was Left Over Was Seven Times Too Small.
Tokyo core CPI printed 2.7 per cent against a 2.3 consensus, and the base-effect decomposition this desk published eleven minutes before the release was right to a hundredth of a point on the subsidies and wrong by a factor of seven on everything else: 0.36 points of residual against the 0.05 we implied. Core-core rose a full point to 3.0, which no childcare waiver can explain. The beat bought sixteen pips. And today's payrolls forecasters are either 70,000 or 145,000 apart depending which vendor prints the range, against the eight-thousand gap we argued about for ten runs.