Daily Market Notes
Waller's 85 Per Cent Was Yesterday's Market Price. We Dated It Three Weeks Too Early.
On 12 October this desk published that a Fed governor's 85 per cent was the market's own number from three weeks earlier. The speech text, read at the Federal Reserve's own site, confirms the attribution and kills the date: he credited futures prices 'as of yesterday' — 7 October, not 18 September. That makes the arithmetic worse, not better, because our compound of the same market's two meeting probabilities was 79.0 on 9 October. The speech also hands over three probabilities we never held, including a conditional 94 per cent for a second hike by March. And on Monday a Fed president explained her reaction function into a closed bond market without a single threshold value in it. He speaks again at 07:45 UTC.