Daily Market Notes
The Two-Year Closed Higher on a 61,000-Job Miss. Our Three-Feed Probability Spread Was One Feed on a Clock.
Friday’s 29,000 payrolls print missed the 27-analyst median by 61,000 and the two-year Treasury closed 3.3 basis points higher at 4.825 per cent, the ten-year 3.0 higher at 5.271 after a low of 5.1528. We also retract Saturday’s claim that three feeds disagreed about the October Fed probability: all of them are CME FedWatch, and with timestamps attached the series reads 28, 12.9, 17, 21.59 and the low twenties — one feed on a clock, whose intraday round trip of 8.69 points was 1.36 times the net repricing. Dollar-yen made a new Tokyo high at 158.17 on a French bond story, and three coupons settle the day after CPI.