Notícias FX

France Paid More Than America for Ten-Year Money. Germany's Yield Went Down.

The French ten-year went above 5 per cent on 22 October for the first time since 2002 and four readers put it between 5.076 and 5.13 per cent.

The American ten-year fell to 4.96, down 17 basis points, the largest one-day drop since March 2023 on one reader. So France borrowed for ten years 11.6 to 17.7 basis points more dearly than the United States - no combination of the eight published figures makes France cheaper - which one reader says had not happened since 2013. The spread is the number people quote and it hides the mechanism. One tracker publishes both legs: since 11 September the French yield rose 72.0 basis points and the German yield FELL 13.0, which accounts for 85.0 of the 84.8 basis points the spread moved, a 0.2 basis point residual. That is 84.9 per cent France and 15.3 per cent Germany - not a euro-area repricing but France repricing while Germany improves. And widest since 2011 flatters it: 174.6 is 50.5 basis points below the 225.1 peak of November 2011, 77.6 per cent of it. Separately the Treasury sold five-year TIPS at a 2.367 per cent real yield against a 2.36 when-issued - a 0.7 basis point tail by our own subtraction, the second in two days - on a 2.41 cover, the weakest for the term since April 2025, in the middle of the biggest bond rally in three and a half years. A rally that brings no bid to the primary market is a rally in duration people already own. Moody's reviews France today.

A Record 5.84 Times Bid-to-Cover, at a Yield 13 Basis Points Lower Than the Last One

Japan sold JPY 700bln of 20-year paper this morning at a bid-to-cover of 5.84 times — a record, against 4.01 at the last auction and a 12-month average of 3.73 — and it cleared at an average yield of 3.7230 per cent, 13.3 basis points below the previous sale. The tail more than halved, 0.07 against 0.15. The story being told is that a yield spike lured buyers in; the clearing level says this auction went 13 basis points richer than the last one, so the narrative and the print describe different quantities, and a trader who merges them has the sign backwards. We are also refusing the word tail: one reader defines it as the gap between average and lowest accepted prices, which is a dispersion measure, not the when-issued comparison our own rulebook means, and with no when-issued level we will not call 0.07 a stop-through. The curve did the work — the 20-year fell as much as 6 basis points to 3.71 per cent, its lowest since 9 September, the 30-year eased to 3.970 and the 10-year rose to 2.920, flattening 20s against 10s by 7.5 basis points to 79. The auction average and the market level sit 1.3 basis points apart. Dollar-yen moved 15 pips. The Ministry of Finance's own result was not read.

We Published 43.7 Per Cent. Seven Minutes Later the Same Feed Read 31.6.

Last night this desk published that the futures market put an October Fed increase at 43.7 per cent, at 23:16 UTC.

A reading of the same feed bylined 23:23 UTC gives 31.6 - 12.1 points lower, seven minutes later. The readings attributed to that one tool on 14 October span 31.6 to about 50, an 18.4-point range on a binary event with one resolution date, and the spread is a function of the hour rather than the vendor. We published a snapshot and called it a level. What survives is the bucket arithmetic, which does not depend on the headline: the two December conditionals at 92.45 and 92.36 per cent still differ by 0.086 of a point. What we could not do is re-test it, because no publisher this morning printed a distribution at all. Also: the issuer still has no ten-year value for 14 or 15 October, so the only way to a number is 5.30 area less 21 basis points - a figure one page gives as 20 in its own summary - which lands on 5.09, about twelve basis points below the issuer's last published 5.21.

Six Officials in Seven Days, One Number Between Them, and It Was Six Days Old

Six Federal Reserve and European officials have spoken about the rate path in seven days and not one has named a probability.

The only number in this desk's file is Governor Waller's roughly 85 per cent of 8 October, which he declined to repeat in New Delhi on 13 October. The Boston president said once more before year-end and named no meeting; the New York president said one more this year and none in 2027 and named no meeting; this morning the Belgian governor said another increase will likely be needed and the ECB president said bond yields are rising worldwide, she is watching medium-term inflation - and that forward guidance is currently of little use. That last line explains the pattern rather than decorating it. Meanwhile the feeds carry October at 16, 19, 19.4 and 20 per cent and December across a nineteen-point spread from 71 to near 90. Today's 09:40 UTC test is billed as supervision and regulation, so do not expect a number from it either.

The Summary Answered Our Question and Ignored the Market's. October Fell Below Twenty Per Cent.

The Bank of Japan's September Summary of Opinions is full of hawkish views and the yen fell half a per cent on it, because it said nothing about October.

What it did say is that the neutral rate should be reassessed after every hike rather than assumed fixed — which discharges the terminal-rate question we opened on 28 September. October odds are below twenty per cent on two post-event readers; a third is excluded because it predates the release. And our 4.77-yen Tankan gap was 3.11: the assumed rate moved to 154.23.