Notícias FX

July Printed 4.7%. It Is Now 4.3%, and Three Records Were Built on the Old Number.

Yesterday we published Japan's eighth straight real-wage gain.

The same release restated five July fields: nominal cash earnings 4.7% to 4.3%, real wages 2.4% to 2.0%, regular pay 4.1% to 3.8%, special payments 6.3% to 5.3% - and overtime 3.1% UP to 4.5%. Three superlatives - fastest since January 1997, biggest since May 2021, fastest since April 1992 - were attached to numbers that no longer exist, and the second-month slowdown everyone is discussing is 44.4% smaller measured from the restated base. August beat consensus by a tenth, and the December Bank of Japan reading now spans 71 to 90 per cent depending on the feed.

The Month-on-Month Is Agreed. The Year-on-Year Has Two Values 5.6 Points Apart.

Japan's August industrial production is agreed at −1.7% month-on-month by four publishers.

Two of them give the year-on-year as +3.4% and two give it as −2.2% — 5.6 points apart, opposite signs, same release. The consensus has three values. Australia's 4.0% CPI is a miss against the figure we published and a bullseye at FXStreet, and the Aussie sold off anyway. And the retail sales prior was revised, one day after we wrote the rule.

Trump Raised the Yen on Tuesday. The Market Found Out Today and Paid 45 Pips.

Japan's finance minister disclosed this morning that the US president raised yen weakness at Tuesday's summit with the prime minister.

Dollar-yen traded 158.78 to 158.33 and was back in the 158.50s within half an hour. That is what the most senior verbal signal available short of actual money is currently worth — and London opens with it already fading.

Your Calendar Forecast 1.5%. The Wire Printed 2.6%. Neither Is Wrong.

The BOJ's Core CPI indicators landed at 05:00 UTC.

Forex Factory had 1.5% against a 1.6% prior; one wire printed 2.6% against a 2.3% prior; Investing.com's own history runs in the 2.7s with forecasts in the 1.6s; MQL5's runs in the 1.8s with forecasts in the 2.9s. Four vendors, four histories of a settled series — because the Bank publishes five indicators across three baskets.

Japan Beat the 7.4% Consensus With a 7.6% That Was Also a Slowdown — and Copper, Not Oil, Did Most of It

The Bank of Japan's own release has August corporate goods prices at +7.6% year on year against a 7.4% consensus — but July was revised up from +7.2% to +7.7%, so the beat is also a deceleration, and the month itself printed −0.2%. The largest contributor was non-ferrous metals at +43.3%, not petroleum. Plus Britain doubling its GDP consensus at 06:00 UTC for four pips, and a US CPI consensus three vendors cannot agree on.